Month: December 2021

Christmas has its wonders, as seas their rolling waves,

To cast in awe the softened heart, of God for whom it craves,

His plan of salvation, to seek and save the lost,

He takes them in their fallen state, he surely bears their cost,

Can God become a man? The Ruler of the Skies,

Forsake his glory and his throne, lost souls the humble prize?

Conceived by the Spirit, and born of virgin bride,

His Christmas birth brings life and hope, to those unqualified,

Gentleness his manner, though power is his frame,

He crushes not despairing ones, but bows them at his name,

Forbearing the wand’rer, the rod of grace restores,

There are no turns on Straight the Road, this side of heaven’s shores,

What quenches God’s fierce wrath? A holy judge is he!

To cover all their grievous sins, his blood spilled on a tree,

His motive for suff’ring, deep love for them he knows,

To bring them near the heart of God, whom they did fore oppose!

Many other marvels, revealed by Christmas light,

Christ shall return, judge all the earth, and win the bloody fight!

One issue remaineth, the matter of YOUR soul,

Have you this hope, deep in your heart, and whom do you extoll?

~Written by Shaun T. Scott, December, 2021

“For God did not send his Son into the world to condemn the world, but in order that the world might be saved through him.” ~John 3:17

Have a blessed Christmas!

Shaun & Deb Scott, Susan Ambrosino, Jenn Carreiro

Old Forge Financial Services

In recent years, the economic backdrop driving America’s investing environment has consisted of slow economic growth, easy-money policies, high asset prices, and disinflation. This theme drove prices for risky assets, many of which had no earnings, paid no dividends, and had no clear path to profitability, to valuations never before seen. Returns on “Hyper-growth” stocks, crypto currencies, and other speculative investments lured many workers out of work and into day-trading. Credible economists, like Lacy Hunt, of Hoisington Investment Management, suggested the excessive debt load would keep America’s economy in slow growth long-term, which would continue to dampen loan growth, which would allow the Fed to continue to suppress rates and print money, which would continue to elevate asset prices. While this narrative is very logical, and for a dozen years remarkably accurate, those supporting it understood that, should a sufficient amount of the Fed’s arbitrarily-created currency units fall into the hands of middle America, as opposed to staying concentrated in the hands of financial interests closest to the Fed’s “trough”, noticeably rising prices would unseat the narrative and change the investing environment. The hubris of government, to think it could shut down national supply chains and then turn them back on like a light switch, coupled with the historically reckless Fed decision to “do whatever it takes” to create inflation north of 2% annually (as if stealing 2% of your income each year wasn’t enough!), have in tandem lit the fuse on inflation, dislodged the old economic narrative, and ushered-in a new investment environment. In regards to the dangers of high inflation, who is most at risk, how might you be exposed, and what basic measures should be taken?

High inflation renders present streams of income more valuable today, and future streams of income less valuable today. This is why the NASDAQ, consisting primarily of growth stocks which pay no dividends, is under pressure, while the DOW JONES, consisting primarily of established dividend payers, is outperforming. The two groups of citizens most damaged by periods of sustainable high inflation are cash savers, or people who keep a substantial portion of their wealth in bank accounts, or similar, low interest vehicles, and pensioners, or people on a fixed income. Savings, after an ample emergency fund is established, must not habitat low interest cash accounts for long. Those on a fixed income should think of ways to diversify income sources, and should consider earning some income on at least a part-time basis. The following should also prove helpful navigating the new landscape:

• Maximize positive cash flow by running a tight family budget, then save & invest more to pay for tomorrow’s higher prices

• Consider The Alpha Strategy for all purchases (contact the office for a free e-copy)

• Don’t relinquish earned income without serious consideration

• Avoid big positions in low or non-income producing investments, like cash and speculative growth stocks

• Focus on income and dividend investments, especially those able to raise prices with inflation, and are capital efficient

• Own some inflation hedges (REIT’s, MLP’s, commodities, gold) 

• Consider utilizing the Charter Economy

Think about it, Shaun.

 The opinions voiced in this material are general, are not intended to provide specific recommendations, and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial. The economic forecasts set forth in this commentary may not develop as predicted.

 All investing involves risk including the possible loss of principle. No strategy insures success or protects against loss.

 Dividend payments are not guaranteed and may be reduced or eliminated at any time by the company.

If you are anything like me, you dread manual, old-economy shopping. Between the back going into seizure from standing motionless for hours on a hard floor, and the ‘Type A’ blood pressure spike from congested traffic and standing in long checkout lines, I can honestly say I prefer an equivalent time in hard labor to traditional shopping. While online shopping removes the annoyances of manual shopping, multiplies product options, saves time and gas, allows for better cost comparison, and provides greater quality assurance through product reviews, it can also introduce you to a genuine financial hardship with a single breach of your security. Adopt these online shopping habits to safeguard your security.

• Use trusted sites ONLY. Whenever you enter your credit-card number, always look for the letter “s” at the end of the URL’s “http.” It should say “https://” before the rest of the site’s address.

• Use encrypted sites ONLY. An icon of a closed padlock will appear at the bottom of the page in most browsers; without encryption hackers can more easily access your information.

• Check the spelling. Make sure the URL you are about to access is the intended URL. The term “Official website” often accompanies a search for retail sites, and the URL of many scam-based websites resembles the real thing.

• Shield your shopping devices. Invest in a good malware-removal program and a good antivirus program for your computer. For your handheld device, use programs like Malwarebytes (for Android phones) and Avast SecureLine (for Apple).

• Avoid “free public Wi-Fi” like the plague. Never enter your personally identifiable information (PII) or financial information on an unsecured network!

• Lock your device, guard your password, and use “two-factor authentication”, which you can learn about here.  

• Use resell sites and gift cards cautiously. An online purchase requiring an activation code requires additional precaution, and we often don’t know if the full value remains on a gift card. I try to avoid both of these.

• Check for a receipt. Save a digital or hard copy of all receipts, and check your credit card statement to verify the charge. ¹

Establish these safe online shopping disciplines, and enjoy the extra time online shopping will afford you with your family! I hope you had a wonderful Thanksgiving celebration this year. Shaun

“The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.”  ~Proverbs 27:12

1 Doc Eifrig’s Health & Wealth Bulletin, “Seven Ways to Stay Safe While Shopping Online”, November 22, 2021

Opinions voiced in this material are general, are not intended to provide specific recommendations, and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial. The economic forecasts set forth in this commentary may not develop as predicted.