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The White Mountains of New Hampshire routinely offer eager mountaineers some of the most violent weather conditions on planet earth, with wind speeds above treeline exceeding 100 mph on a weekly basis in the winter season. The Whites are the only mountains I know that require a second set of goggles, for the first pair [...]

While it is a uniquely enjoyable privilege to dally on a high mountain summit, every experienced climber knows the vast majority of mountaineering casualties occur on the descent and understands the need for precision. I suspect this lingering truth results in an unjustly short average summit stay, given the ascent’s required suffering. A similar anomaly [...]

The Federal Reserve Bank (‘the Fed’) controls the ‘Fed Funds Rate’, which sets the range for the interest rate banks charge each other for overnight loans, which affects the rate charged on credit cards, home equity lines of credit and savings, which impacts the flow of investment capital and the stock market. While this is [...]

Many diligent wealth-builders fail to realize they have a permanent business partner—the IRS certainly does not. As nationally syndicated CPA Ed Slott wisely observes, “Your IRA is an IOU to the IRS.” The primary goals of most wealth-builders are to a) maximize after-tax lifetime income and b) transfer remaining wealth to heirs as efficiently as [...]

While life is primarily about things far more important than wealth-building, financial freedom does provide mentionable liberties, like the opportunity to give to those in need, the means to see earth’s great natural wonders, the chance to travel and experience diverse cultures, the blessing of working voluntarily, the knowledge to teach financial principles to others, [...]

A mountaineer can increase both climbing success and safety by learning to discern what cloud formations reveal about impending mountain weather. Since the official mountain forecast is little more than an indication of the conditions which “might” prevail over a maximum period of 48 hours, the ability to discern the clouds becomes essential. A knowledge [...]

The primary concern and biggest navigational deterrent for winter mountaineers is generally a high wind speed. At 70 MPH it becomes questionable as to whether the climber or the wind is in control, at 80 MPH all doubt is removed, and at 100+ MPH the climber is “belly down” and crawling for survival with plummeting [...]

As my climbing buddy and I emerged from the safety of the below-treeline windshield, we were harshly greeted by 80 MPH winds hurling tiny ice particles straight into our unprotected eyes, preventing even a peak in the direction we hoped to advance! A quick retreat to “goggle up” allowed us to get through the “flying-ice [...]

It fascinates me that in the deadliest (1967) expedition in Denali’s history, five of the seven climbers who perished chose to cower in a snow cave and freeze to death, and two individually died trying to descend “The High One” in a raging winter blizzard alone. My profession has taught me that, fiscally speaking, there [...]

While most investors are familiar with the concept of asset ‘allocation’, fewer understand the importance of asset ‘location’. While the former addresses the diversification of investment capital to various asset classes, the latter involves the appropriation of this capital to varying account ‘types’, and more specifically, the way they are taxed. Since financial stewardship has [...]

The savvy vegetable gardener must mitigate insect risk and rodent risk, drought risk and weed risk, nutrient depletion risk and dead seed risk; the effective mitigation of all but one deadly peril can result in a fruitless garden! Likewise, planning a financially resilient retirement requires identifying and mitigating the following seven hazards, each of which [...]

The weather report for the Continental Divide west of Denver that day in February 2014 called for sun, +5-degree temps, and gusts to 20mph, perfect conditions for a daylong winter excursion! Unfortunately, we believed the report. After battling mild altitude sickness, -5-degree temps, and constant 60mph winds for seven hours, my overconfidence was exposed and [...]

Early in my mountaineering career I discovered that a handful of ginger on the pre-summit push rest stop provides a sustainable burst of energy with no residual crash. I’ve never climbed without a bag of ginger since that wonderful revelation occurred! An experienced climber uses every technical, nutritional and directional advantage available to survive mountain [...]

People have asked me why mountaineers don’t climb Alaska’s Mount Denali in the more hospitable summer months to mitigate the risk of cold injuries, not realizing higher temperatures destabilize the snow and ice, increasing the incalculable risks of slip and falls, crevasse falls, and avalanches. Just as the climber’s survival hinges on a wise discernment [...]

I learned the hard way on my first (and last) solo winter mountain climb that a successful expedition lies not in summiting, but in returning safely home. No summit experience can be compared to the value of a climber’s remaining life on earth; therefore, mountaineering is a reasonable hobby to the extent to which life-threatening [...]

For many retirees, Social Security is a key piece of the income puzzle. But when and how you claim your benefits can affect the amount you receive over time. A little strategy and planning can help you make the most of what you’ve earned. Know How Your Benefits Are Calculated Your benefit amount is based [...]

Mountaineers who fail to identify and effectively mitigate specific risks often become valuable examples for more studious climbers. Just as hypothermia, personal injuries, white-outs, slip-and-falls, avalanches, and crevasse falls threaten the mountaineering expedition, the following hazards endanger an equally challenging endeavor, the Retirement Income Plan. Identify and mitigate the following risks to help improve the [...]

Building wealth is less about luck and more about disciplined principles applied consistently over time. Below are ten foundational principles, each with practical examples to help guide your financial journey. Increase Earning Power Invest in yourself through ongoing education and specialization in your field. Example: An engineer who earns additional certifications may qualify for higher-paying [...]

A mountain guide can attempt to lead an expedition up a dangerous ascent but cannot force climbers to follow; that requires competence and trust. When the Federal Reserve begins to lower interest rates during a period of persistent inflationary pressure, it risks reviving a specter long thought consigned to the 1970s: stagflation. This toxic mix [...]

A fascinating and slightly unnerving aspect of technological advancement (TA) is the fact that everything ever learned is harnessed for further learning, causing the rate of advancement to accelerate continuously towards eventual parabolic growth. The chart resembles that of long-term compounding returns, and both resemble the bottom right quarter of a circle. A less understood [...]

It’s unlikely that a battle can be won against a misunderstood enemy. What will swiftly defeat one opponent will be taken and used against you by another. In mid-2021, Jerome Powell proclaimed that surging inflation-the arch enemy of America’s middle class-was transitory.  Several regional banks that believed him made large bets on long-dated Treasury bonds [...]

Managing a productive vegetable garden for longevity is a far more complicated endeavor than most young gardeners understand. Since the four main crop types require different primary nutrients, annual plant rotation must be practiced to deter nutrient depletion. This necessitates an education in companion planting, or the proximate placement of ‘like’ species to save water [...]

While mingling at Ed Slott’s Elite IRA Advisor Conference this week, an intrigued gentleman asked me to explain the difference between hiking and climbing. He seemed satisfied with the simple truth that hiking becomes climbing when special tools are required to give the mountaineer a technical advantage to safely ascend otherwise dangerous terrain. This seems [...]

President Trump’s tariffs are a ploy to reduce the U.S. trade imbalance and restore domestic manufacturing, but initiative goals indicate the replacement of tens of millions of foreign production jobs,¹ by a U.S. economy with only 7 million working-age unemployed, and only 2 million receiving benefits.² The extent to which the President will achieve his [...]

When I see a line of climbers standing single file by the hundreds on upper Mt. Everest, I wonder how many would survive a sudden deadly storm. The question then emerges as to how the wonderful solitude and serenity found in navigating God’s remote winter mountain wilderness was lost on so many mountaineers! Concentrated human [...]

It’s generally advisable for investors to be long-term bullish because the average bull market has lasted longer than the average bear market over time, and because average bull market gains have exceeded average bear market losses. As famed investor, Sir John Templeton, wisely advised, “Never stay bearish too long”. That said, certain drawdowns occur which [...]

Good can always be found in even the harshest of life’s misfortunes and experiences. While it’s not generally my inclination to see that good, I have faithful friends who routinely point it out. I remember having lunch at Iceberg Lake on Mt. Whitney in 2010, when suddenly before our eyes an avalanche released on the [...]

Savvy vegetable gardeners understand the first hard frost is a game changer for the home-grown food plot, introducing a whole new growing environment. Such a shift may be occurring in the global stock market dynamic that has been dominant in recent years. The “U.S. exceptionalism trade”, in which American stocks have soared while global stock [...]

While the endeavors are in ways dissimilar, successfully planning and surviving a big mountain expedition, and building and multi-generationally retaining a financial estate have much in common. The mountaineer must be conditioned (with strength, endurance, balance, and cold tolerance), equipped (with appropriate clothing and gear, and know how and when to use every item), and [...]

Though an attempt is being made to present the concept in a favorable light, tariffs must be judged by their record. Free and open trade has Biblical roots and is mutually and highly beneficial in many respects, but ‘Protectionism’, a national trade policy seeking to protect domestic manufacturers by imposing tariffs on the imports of [...]

I learned three valuable lessons on a 2014 Rocky Mountain climb that have claimed the lives of many mountaineers, but God graciously preserved me. Flying from sea level to Denver, hitching a ride the following morning to 12,000 feet, and climbing the Continental Divide in winter taught me the importance of proper climatization. Establishing an [...]

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Money is to be earned, saved, invested, enjoyed, given away, and passed from generation to generation. It is something that He who owns everything has temporarily entrusted to us, and we should say thank you with faithful stewardship.

Eradicate politics, geo-politics, and macro-economics from your investment decision-making process, and use tools to prevent your emotions from finding another way in. Make adjustments to your investment portfolio, not sweeping changes; lean, don’t jump.

Systematic rebalancing periodically restores the desired portfolio allocation by reducing outperforming and increasing underperforming securities. Here are the numerous benefits and a few disclaimers of this popular investing strategy.

It’s true the stock market is an entity especially equipped to inflict the maximum amount of punishment on the largest number of investors possible, but it’s also true the investors it seeks to discipline inherently carry destructive behavioral biases which especially condition them for market abuse. There are reasons why the average individual investor consistently […]

Large mountains create their own largely unpredictable weather, but early indications of trouble are often still perceivable by those paying particular attention. The one-week Valley forecast reveals major systems approaching, always unleashing intensified effects up top, while the two-day summit forecast offers a 51% probability of conditions above treeline for the period. Cumulonimbus clouds forewarn […]

Gold is greatly misunderstood by both investors with an affinity, and those with an aversion to it. Consider a few relevant facts as you gain a better understanding of this unique asset class.

Young mountaineers quickly learn to count ounces instead of pounds, and that few luxuries belong on a multi-day trek because it is dangerous to carry unproductive weight on foot in a hostile winter environment. Similarly, excesses should be largely excluded when managing one’s financial life amidst persistent high inflation. The minimization of wasteful spending can […]

It’s common for championship sports teams to have an ‘X’ Factor player with unique abilities which provide a critical edge over the competition. The big game clutch hitting of Boston Red Sox’ Big Papi. New England Patriot’s special teams returner Troy Brown. The Boston Celtic Dennis Johnson, who slowed the Lakers down without ever turning […]

The trek Nando Parrado and Roberto Canessa made to Santiago from deep in the Andes Mountains following the Uruguayan rugby team’s plane crash in October of 1972 was a legendary winter mountaineering expedition. Fighting -35F temps in civilian clothes while trying to stabilize the injured, grieve for the dead and simply stay alive made for […]

Residential real estate has been a highly productive investment for many Americans in recent years, and in particular, rental homes producing a competitive net yield have exemplified the successful growth and income investment. The time and effort required to maintain a home can become burdensome with age, however, and hiring professionals for every maintenance and […]

Experienced mountaineers know precisely where every utensil is at all times, whether on the person or in the pack, and can find it quickly in the dark. I’ve seen a 50-Year-old man throw a public tantrum and miss ‘summit day’ on an expensive climb due to his ignorance of this rudiment of team climbing. Many […]

As a vegetable gardener, if I don’t bring three contenders for the harvest into subjection early in the growing season, I labor without pay to feed weeds, rodents and bugs. Each does its share to encroach upon, and ultimately consume the precious fruit of my labors! We live in a materialistic society which measures economic […]

A fascinating case study in mountaineering is found in “Mountain of Ice,” a Jon Krakauer narrated Nova documentary of an ascent of Vinson Massif, Antarctica’s highest peak and the coldest mountain on earth, by a mostly world class climbing team. A team-wide disagreement broke out over whether to ascend the head wall via an easily […]

The view from the plane as we flew onto Mt. Denali for a May, 2017 attempt is burned into my memory. The long sprawling glaciers occupying the lower mountain, littered with hundreds of 2,200-foot-deep crevasses, bore the ‘Big three’ dangers quickly to mind: slip-n-fall, crevasse fall, and avalanche, in that order. This was the culmination […]

My vegetable garden always looks incredible in late May following the spring rains. The beds are orderly and full, plants flourishing, early harvest active, and weed containment stellar; but nature is persistent, and as the daily workload increases in mid-summer’s soggy heat, the war on weeds invariably morphs into a furious battle to save the […]

My vegetable garden consists of raised companion beds, hydroponics, Hugelkultur, decomposed wood chips, traditional dirt, and a Cotieres, six distinct gardening techniques originating in several different countries, each with advantages and disadvantages. Since the climate varies yearly, and with each plant species possessing needs and vulnerabilities, likes and dislikes, the variation challenges my stunted creativity […]

I’ll never forget a story my uncle told me many years ago about how he ventured into a large field on his dairy farm alone. When a good distance from the fence line he looked up the hill, and in near disbelief saw an angry bull staring at him 100 yards away signaling a charge. […]

Following established trails up a forested mountain does not resemble devising one’s own advance of the contours of a snow or ice-covered alp. One requires a modern map; the other requires deep study and an intimate knowledge of the topography to be traversed. I recall using three software programs to carefully plan our first climb […]

Cultivating a vegetable garden is one of the most enjoyable and rewarding experiences I’ve had. Organically enriching the soil, rotating crops, companion planting cohabitant species, timing climatic growth and fruit-bearing cycles, and, of course, harvesting and enjoying the bounty is a truly enriching endeavor. Let’s consider the foundation, forms, and fruit of wealth-building, which can […]

I remember feeling deep respect for the head guide of our Mt. Ranier climb in 2009 as he opened our introductory meeting with the words, “The risk you are about to take may result in your injury or death”. The climb the sixteen of us were inspired to attempt came with unavoidable life-threatening risks. Likewise, […]

Thirty-five years of planning folk’s retirements has taught me the vast majority of people do their planning last minute solely to gauge the adequacy of long-term funding; rarely is due consideration given to the many strategic income options available, or the need for a tax smart income plan, one that doesn’t disrupt established investment or […]

Frequently and without warning mountain climbers venturing above treeline in winter are presented with the threatening combination of heavy snow and high winds, and the natural response is a panicked retreat. Panic while navigating such elements is dangerous, however, and sometimes safety resides above, not below. At the very moment clear thinking is required, terror […]

Prior to the shot clock, basketball teams facing superior opponents would sometimes stall the game by maintaining possession and refusing to shoot. While these were incredibly boring games to watch, the strategy produced much closer contests by frustrating the superior team and reducing its time of possession and shot attempts. If the goal was to […]

‘Knowledge is power’ in at least one practical sense: it equips a person to make wiser decisions. Ed Viesturs, arguably the greatest mountaineer America ever produced, understood this principle when he read “Freedom of the Hills”, a 567page manual on mountaineering, twice cover to cover before putting a pair of crampons on. Warren Buffet consistently […]

The concept of investment diversification involves mitigating the risk of a catastrophic loss by owning numerous, low correlation assets. If capping exposure to a single security or asset class is wise because it effectively tempers investment risk, wouldn’t it also be wise to apply this principle to other hazards, like unknown future tax rates on […]

The greatest danger I have faced in the mountains followed the willful disregard of a warning. Our Designer equipped us with a keen ability to perceive danger, most notably through fear, a healthy human attribute respect by the wise. The challenge with investing is fear instigates a herd mentality in a counterintuitive market, the most […]

I remember well a particular White Mountain storm my buddy and I survived ten or so years ago. On the descent from Mt. Adams to camp, 90 mph winds tossed us about like rag dolls, froze our goggles and then pelted our eyeballs with flying ice, buried every trail marker in 5-foot drifts, which buried […]

A mountaineer’s decision of whether to trek in snowshoes or crampons involves numerous factors. How deep is the snow, and is the trail beneath it packed? Is the snow crusted on top, and if so, how much weight can it support? How hard is it snowing, and how fast is the fresh snow firming? Is […]

History offers the investor reliable assistance to navigate the counterintuitive stock market, an enterprise adequately equipped to dispense the maximum amount of pain on the largest number of investors possible. Mark Twain observed that “History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes”, and from a world operating under the principle that “What has been is what […]

For my first 31 years in the investment business, and until the “Covid Lockdown of 2020” (‘The Lockdown’), college tuitions increased consistently faster than the national inflation rate, to the extent a higher annual increase was built into financial planning models for future education costs, like future health care costs. While ‘The Lockdown’ had an […]

Effectively planning one’s retirement often requires going beyond the question of the extent to which that retirement is funded. It involves mapping the logistical intricacies of a puzzle with many moving parts, each with financial, tax, and estate ramifications. The initiation of Social Security benefits is a piece of this puzzle. Consider the key issues: […]

I vividly recall the horror of approaching the limits of my strength and conditioning while on a winter mountain climb years ago, and yet far from safety. It was a crushing revelation that I had overestimated my preparation and misjudged the physical requirement of the expedition, and as a result, was faced with an extremely […]

There are noticeable parallels between the stewardship of one’s physical and financial health. Just as a consistent regimen of nutrition, sunshine, exercise, hydration and sleep tends to sustain a healthy person, the methodical practice of simple financial principles tends to produce financially healthy families. Employer-sponsored retirement plans, such as 401(k)’s, 403(b)’s, Profit-Sharing and SIMPLE Plans […]

Surviving a summit attempt on a world class mountain requires the use of every means available towards success, including proper clothing and gear, physical conditioning, mental preparation, technical training, route planning, team coordination, danger recognition, and, of course, sound and timely decision-making in every instance. Dwelling in such a hostile environment long enough to earn […]

While it’s sensible to witness the ballooning debt load of one’s own over-spending nation and expect an unpleasant conclusion, it isn’t reasonable to presume the process will necessarily mimic The Great Depression of the early 20’TH century. Historically, the financial demise of fiscally irresponsible countries has come in the form of deflation, which Argentina has […]

While favorable circumstances are agreeable to human nature, and therefore, by most people welcomed and enjoyed, it is primarily amid trial and suffering that personal growth occurs, and in which the character is fashioned. My strongest memories as a mountaineer consist not of getting a photo shoot on the summits of 14,000 peaks in cloudless […]

In early 2014, during the months of training for a one-week winter climb in the Rocky Mountains, past successes had led to a complacency that resulted in too few hours in the gym. The corresponding seven pounds of unproductive weight that I was not accustomed to carrying in the mountains, coupled with colder temps and […]

It is an established fact that returns on investment are more attributable to sector allocation than all other factors. The financial successes of Benjamin Graham, known as “the father of value investing”, and his star pupil, Warren Buffet, are largely ascribed to their respective and predominant appropriation of invested assets to the single industry of […]

As a young mountaineer, terrifying fear quickly taught me that, short of learning how to assess risk, distinguish calculable and incalculable risks, and manage risks assumed via careful planning and the use of every technical advantage available, my climbing career would likely be brief. Ultimately our fate is in the hands of our Creator, but […]

Production is the engine that powers an economy and enables wealth-building. Capital is the fuel on which the engine of production runs, which we’ll call dollars. Interest rates represent the cost of dollars, meaning, the “rent-rate” to place dollars in the hands of producers to keep businesses producing. It is financially beneficial for businesses to […]

The safest and surest way to climb a truly big mountain is to halve the load and cache stores of food and fuel deep in the snow between advancing camps for later retrieval. This caching system helps the mountaineer climatize, but it also distributes the weight for a more methodical progression up the mountain, and […]

Scores of mountain climbers have perished for misjudging the objective to be the illustrious summit, and forgetting it was to return home to their loved ones. This misappropriation of priority is further demonstrated in the fact 80% expired on the descent, indicating that in many cases too little energy was preserved to make it down […]

In the Noah Webster 1828 Dictionary, “labor” is defined as an exertion of muscular strength occasioning weariness, by which subsistence is obtained, and which contributes to health. According to The U.S. Department of Labor, Labor Day is an annual celebration on the first Monday in September of the economic achievements of the American worker. America […]

In the great endurance sailing races of the world, competing teams must continuously judge the winds and engage the race, even during extreme weather events. As a mountaineer, many times have I thanked God I was not suffering in a high mountain storm, but hunkered down in a 25 below bag sipping tea; but that […]

A great deal of the planning for our 23-day Denali climb in 2017 involved food. Bulk, weight, caloric type and content, prep and cook time, cold tolerance, and savor were all important considerations. A frozen chocolate bar will break your teeth. At 17,000 feet, your body struggles to digest beef jerky. A food allergy can […]

I remember on day one of a three-day winter climb in the White Mountains of New Hampshire my Whisper Lite stove, the only option for heating our freeze-dried food, malfunctioned. While I weighed the options of feeding the caloric crave with yet more frozen trail bars, or raw, freeze-dried dinners, a gracious and more prepared […]

I’m no Master Gardener, but I do immensely enjoy time in my vegetable garden, and so appreciate the opportunity to grow my own healthy food. People see my garden and assume it requires an absurd amount of time to cultivate and maintain; the truth is it takes a small amount of time every day. Appropriating […]

Some climbers think of mountaineering as a challenging event and an opportunity for accomplishment. Though these are aspects of climbing, defining the sport this way can lead to summit fever, which can kill you. Climbers who learn to embrace the process of mountaineering think of each climb as a unique and exciting adventure, from choosing […]

Newton’s First Law of Motion, that a moving object will persist in both speed and direction unless interrupted by an external force, has significant financial implications. The ethic to habitually save and invest a portion of one’s monthly excess minimizes external forces of derailment with the wealth it creates. Dollar-cost averaging, matched and/or deductible contributions, […]

Forecasting mountain weather is an extremely challenging exercise at its easiest. The climber’s life is hinged to a consensus of probable weather scenarios, while on a slab of granite big enough to generate its own weather from invisible systems of energy without warning. To say the climber advances with a back-up plan is an understatement, […]

During a Denali expedition in 2017, following a 9 day confinement at 14,200 foot camp due to a severe cold storm that saw a handful of climbers with frozen appendages rescued by helicopter, a climbing day arrived! To our dismay and disapproval, the expedition’s head guide decided we would not ascend the head wall to […]

Mountaineering offers many opportunities for regret, especially the young climber’s formative years. The man who chased his pack into a 2,000 foot deep crevasse on Mt. Denali on May 15, 2017, surely regretted not clipping it to his harness. Years ago I regretted not putting my snowshoes on and stubbornly post-holing for two hours in […]

Methodical wealth building (MWB) may be defined as the accumulation of wealth, or net worth, at a pace faster than inflation. It is a Biblical concept, a practical endeavor, and a noble enterprise, as the effort of one invariably blesses the lives of many. MWB prioritizes not the accumulation of money, but good stewardship, and […]

Mountain climbing, like investing, inherently involves risk. Packing a survival blanket to withstand hypothermia, and a second pair of goggles to prevent the blindness of frozen eyelids, and establishing multiple camps on big mountain adventures, to which you may flee and recover from injury, all offer the dividend of living to climb another day. The […]

It has been the practice of our two-man winter climbing team for 15 years to hire guides on glaciated adventures, and to go-it-alone on snow. We’ve paid guide teams to endanger us, and we’ve paid guide teams to save our lives. On one particular 5 day climb in 2011, the guiding policies were so irrational, […]

Engaging an activity without an understanding of the associative principles and rules is generally a consequential endeavor. This winter alone a good number of outdoor enthusiasts ventured into the White Mountains of New Hampshire absent both knowledge and attire, and quickly met their Maker. Ed Viesturs, the greatest mountaineer America ever produced, never put his […]

I think the single biggest factor governing a winter mountain expedition is the weather, and the biggest weather factor is the wind. A 105 MPH gust will throw a 200 pound climber like a leaf, forcing the humiliating crawl. An 80 MPH wind will cause such exertion staying vertical that exacerbated breathing can freeze the […]

Fear is one of the most powerful human emotions, and for this reason, negativity sells. Successful investing, however, involves a consistent, phlegmatic practice of sound principles over time, and in a broad range of investing environments. While ratings-driven news stories can show us where the emotionally-charged herd is stampeding at the moment, in order to […]

Vegetable gardening fascinates me in both its simplicity and productivity. Mix dirt with nutrition, balance the PH, add sunshine and water, and you can grow anything! And as you encounter problems, there are only four conditions to investigate. Compounding the dividends of great businesses over time is one of the simplest, and historically one of […]

The great first ascent of Meru, a shark fin-shaped peak found at 20,000 feet in the Himalaya Mountains, formerly thought to be unclimbable, was preceded by the infamous trio’s failed attempt. After being confined to their hanging tent through a multi-day storm, Conrad Anker and Jimmy Chin, to the shock and befuddlement of Renan Ozturk, […]

Babe Ruth was dynamic to baseball in that, with unparalleled frequency he would change the score with a swing, and in any ballpark. His presence meaningfully changed the game. Hakeem Olajuwon, a former soccer player, and the greatest shot-blocker in NBA history, changed the game with his presence in the paint. This week the U.S. […]

Just as the vitality and sustainability of any nation’s economy is tied to the condition of its middle class, the direction and momentum of the stock market is tied to the health of the average stock from which it is comprised. Market breadth is always a key indicator of the market’s general health, and many […]

There are two ways to climb a world class mountain, heavy and slow, which is laborious and time consuming, but safe, and light and fast, which is relatively easy and requires a fraction of the time, but it is extraordinarily dangerous. I’d call the former a principle for successful mountaineering, and the latter, a rare […]

We’ve all heard the cliché “if you fail to plan, you are planning to fail”. Many former mountaineers can attribute their unnecessary demise to this simple truth. At Old Forge Wealth Management, we seek to teach investors how to apply financial principles towards effective wealth building, and then help them teach their children how to […]

Guiding principles are vital in that in any endeavor they maximize the probability of survival, even in threatening circumstances, and when consistently practiced over time, typically add success to the experience. These principles are applied positively, with actions to execute, and negatively, with mistakes to avoid. Three of my close friends started kayaking in the […]

Inflation is a silent rustler seldom identified by the plundered. Many things may trigger price inflation, such as a supply constraint or a sudden spike in demand, but one thing may be properly identified as inflation’s cause. Following the Covid lockdown, the Fed created so many arbitrary new dollars that, short of a severe economic […]

I recall while ascending the Disappointment Cleaver Route of Mt. Ranier in 2009, our rope team traversing a glacier heavily littered with boulders of all sizes. A picture of that slope was etched into my visual memory, a sign of treachery so convincing no verbal warning was required of the guides. What are the signs […]

The White Mountains of New Hampshire are small, but extremely dangerous mountains, especially in the winter season. Climbers visiting from the world’s taller, drier, and in most cases smoother ranges, often expecting a mini-version of their past climbing experiences, are rather presented with endless rugged bouldering, cold but wet, hypo-thermically-conducive air, and the fiercest winds […]

Mountaineers venturing above treeline in winter carry essentials to thrive in any weather scenario, and sometimes experience every weather scenario in a single day. Investors who prospered in the 1970’s, a decade which saw two lengthy recessions, wild market volatility, and constantly rising interest rates, were comparably equipped! 2022 ushered in conditions substantially similar to […]

I recall from over twenty years ago, while beginning a long hike on the Franconia Range in the White Mountains, my brother and I debating which of his four young children might first ask, “How much farther is it?”, and how soon they might ask it. Focusing on the suffering a mountain climb inflicts can […]

The Fed finally achieved its long-sought 2% inflation rate, over-shooting nearly five times before addressing the issue, and now inflation is driving monetary policy, the economy, and the direction of asset prices, and will be for some time. Why must Jerome Powell & Co. continue tightening policy until something big breaks? What market dynamics suggest […]

June introduced the first natural bear market in the U.S. since the Great Recession in 2008. The February to March, 2020, covid lockdown-induced bear market qualified by definition, which is a 20% decline from the recent peak, but lacked important characteristics of a traditional bear market, and was anything but natural. Major bear markets are […]

The percentage of any wild animal’s time spent searching for food is impressive, a display of planning, exertion, and perseverance which puts even Master Gardeners to shame. The animal is simply not in confusion about the importance of food. Vital resources steadily supplied to producing nations through established distribution channels by way of relatively free […]

Hikers venture into the White Mountains of New Hampshire every year adequately prepared to climb in pleasant conditions, sadly never returning to their families. No sailor enters The Clipper Race around the world absent years of intense mental and physical preparation for good reason, and ‘the winds of the White’s’ have no more compassion on […]

Winter Mountaineering exposes climbers to various risks, some calculable and some incalculable. Calculable risks, like the probability of pursuing an unnavigable route or a slip and fall on steep terrain, can be managed with planning, conditioning, and technical advantage, while incalculable risks, like an avalanche or a crevasse fall, are largely unmanageable and must be […]

I used to love telling scary ‘bear stories’ to my young and gullible nephews while camping in the woods behind our home, and would often inconspicuously loft rocks into the brush for effect. Jerome Powell is a gifted storyteller; already confounded once by the resiliency of ‘40 year high’ price inflation, Powell is now counting […]

Financial success, or exemplary stewardship, involves both earning money, and the judicious appropriation of those earnings. Astute budgeting is the indispensable ingredient to financial success for both families and businesses, and high inflation magnifies its value, as well as the consequences to those who neglect it. What strategies can you employ on both the income […]

To survive a threatening winter storm above tree-line, mountaineers must think, stay hydrated and fueled, keep the core temperature stable, avoid injury, and chart a course to expediently descend the mountain. The storm doesn’t care what a great climber you are; the neglect of any of these things may get you killed. Execution is all […]

Three weather systems converge at the summit of Mt. Washington in New Hampshire, a weather phenomenon meteorologists refer as “The Vortex”, producing one of the windiest places on planet earth. The Mt. Washington Observatory (MWO) confirms this violent swirl produces wind speeds exceeding 100 MPH on average every week in winter, reliably presenting climbers venturing […]

The great thing about hiring a professional guide on a big mountain expedition is the guide goes with you, and is even tied to the same rope. Subterfuge is of no use to the mountain guide, as their own life is dependent on the counsel they give. Central bankers are none the sort, yet have […]

Winter mountaineering is considered by most, including life insurance underwriters, to be an extremely dangerous sport, but the fact is the vast majority of risks on the mountain are calculable, hence, when managed dutifully, the sport can be enjoyed with reasonable safety into a climber’s elder years, and often is. Accumulating wealth is in this […]

Slip-and-falls on steep terrain are far and away the number one killer of high mountain climbers, and interestingly, the vast majority of these falls occur on the descent, the part most would describe as the easy half. It’s easy for a climber to die on the way down, for the whole process lends itself to […]

Significant preparations are made for bad weather scenarios when planning a big mountain expedition, but when the battering begins, it’s instantly clear to the mountaineer the time for planning is over; carrying out well-laid plans is suddenly essential for survival. Stagflation is as dangerous to the financial lives of savers and investors as are high […]

Mainstream economists expected a paltry 1% GDP growth for the first quarter, a far cry from the 7% growth realized in the fourth quarter of 2021, yet yesterday’s release showed the U.S. economy contracted 1.4%.¹ The first economic contraction since the Covid19 lockdown considerably raises the probability of a near-term recession, defined as two consecutive […]

Two rare and highly disruptive market events appear to simultaneously be in their early stages today. Price inflation is at a fresh 40 year high,¹ actively devouring the cash savings of all consumers everywhere, and at an alarming rate. There have been but four commodity supercycles, or prolonged periods of broadly rising commodity prices due […]

I’m long past athletic peak, but the playoff atmosphere, in which decisions and execution become palpably more consequential, still excites a resilient competitive ambition. I wonder if Jerome Powell, recently exposed to “World Series pressure” by the 40 year high inflation he personally created, feels confident or afraid right now. What is the financial backdrop, […]

Today numerous issues complicate and endanger the retirement plans of millions of working Americans. Many find it increasingly difficult to save and invest due to the high cost of living, while others throw their investable dollars out the window on high rents every month due to a lack of affordable homes. The present inflation rate […]

How can it take 20 minutes for my tea water to boil when I stand and wait, and just 90 seconds when I walk away, ‘all other things being equal’? Perception drives many important facets of our economy; in fact, the indispensable component is a largely subjective phenomenon. How are changing financial conditions certain to […]

One of the most critical survival items in the most accessible pocket of the winter mountaineer’s pack lies a pair of goggles. Experienced climbers understand once the goggles are put on, it’s a matter of time before they freeze, the point at which climbing becomes surviving blind. For this reason, goggles are never used prematurely, […]

On a winter mountaineering expedition, the time to prepare for a summit attempt is when you’re safe in your tent below. Venturing above in foul weather in the manner you would on a calm sunny day will immediately expose you to numerous life-threatening perils. Investors neglecting preparation for the approaching stagflationary storm may soon face […]

You’ll never hear this from a central planner or a Socialist, but every individual is a fully-operational micro-economy, each making decisions they believe will best advance their own cause. It’s also true, based on the management (or mismanagement) of their own economy, that every person is either a wealth producer or a wealth consumer. Financial […]

Seldom is the winter wind blowing under 50 mph, and weekly over 100 mph, at Edmund’s Col (‘the winter Col’), found in the White Mountains of New Hampshire. Sound counsel for climbers contriving a first-venture through ‘the winter Col’ is a preceding and critical adjustment in both attitude and posture. Investors navigating a rising interest […]

Jerome Powell’s abrupt re-posturing towards inflation sends a resounding message to listening investors: risk matters again. Effective risk management first requires thought and planning. If a pair of winter climbers doesn’t first think about how to survive a whiteout, the probability of separation and disaster escalates when the cloud of wind and snow joins their […]

  Following an un-roped ascent of the final 400 feet on the Mountaineer’s Route of Mt. Whitney in 2010, a 60-degree pitch involving mixed, technical climbing, I became disturbed by the amount of risk I had just willingly assumed to my life. Months later I inquired of Rick Wilcox, a highly accomplished mountaineer from North Conway, […]

Forty percent (40%) of company stocks listed on the NASDAQ are down by 50% or more,¹ market breadth in the NASDAQ, Russell Micro Cap Index, and all Asia Indexes are negative and falling,² and credible and accomplished investors are starting to warn of an impending bear market. What factors suggest the stock party may not […]

Though our culture encourages, in many cases financially supports, and as seen in the cozy relationship between the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve Bank (“the Fed”), actually glorifies debt, debt is indeed potentially dangerous and must at all times be shrewdly managed. Consider the following three principles in your quest to manage debt well. […]

Christmas has its wonders, as seas their rolling waves, To cast in awe the softened heart, of God for whom it craves,   His plan of salvation, to seek and save the lost, He takes them in their fallen state, he surely bears their cost,   Can God become a man? The Ruler of the […]

In recent years, the economic backdrop driving America’s investing environment has consisted of slow economic growth, easy-money policies, high asset prices, and disinflation. This theme drove prices for risky assets, many of which had no earnings, paid no dividends, and had no clear path to profitability, to valuations never before seen. Returns on “Hyper-growth” stocks, […]

If you are anything like me, you dread manual, old-economy shopping. Between the back going into seizure from standing motionless for hours on a hard floor, and the ‘Type A’ blood pressure spike from congested traffic and standing in long checkout lines, I can honestly say I prefer an equivalent time in hard labor to […]

It’s rare in our distractively-busy culture for the common American to engage macroeconomic issues, but rapidly rising prices driven by highly inflationary policy are a present and notable exception. Engaging the public discourse on inflation, and knowing how to effectively overcome it, however, seldom marry, so let’s investigate why that is. It’s fascinating to ask […]

Time has shown the common-most ‘top priority’ among elite investors globally has nothing to do with buying securities or building investment portfolios, and everything to do with the protection of capital and knowing when to sell. Mountaineers ascending grades too steep to arrest a ‘slip-n-fall’ often attach to a fixed rope, so when things go […]

Retirement planning and income investing professional, David “Doc” Eifrig, of Stansberry Research, has been warning near-term retirees, “The deck is stacked against you”.¹ What are the converging hazards to the planned ‘2020’s retirement’, and what solutions may avert disaster? Many retirees dread the humiliation of running out of money and having to return to work […]

The ongoing debate over whether the recent surge in prices will be ‘transitory’ or ‘lasting’ has quieted, as price-hikes persist with no end in sight. The cost of living in America is presently increasing at over 8% annually, based on the U.S. government’s own 1990-based formula.1 Meanwhile, Trish Regan, of American Consequences, reports inflation-adjusted wages […]

The Fed’s policy of perpetual dollar debasement makes it increasingly difficult for common folks to put food on the table, but new technologies present valuable solutions for the nimble. Consider the charter economy, and how it can help your family solve the dilemma of rising costs. The charter economy is simply a “sharing” economy in […]

Disruptive trends are in place in the world today which are changing the social and economic experience for virtually all people everywhere. This week let’s identify a few of these primary shifts in mass behavior, not to judge the moral integrity or economic feasibility of these developments, for a sufficient number of policymakers with sufficient […]

The S&P 500’s ongoing 18 month run without a 5% setback is in jeopardy, courtesy of Chinese real estate firm, Evergrande. The company is vulnerable to defaulting on an $80 billion loan payment due Thursday, should the CCP refuse to bail it out, and fear of contagion Monday delivered the U.S. averages their biggest daily […]

This week I would like to offer a self-correction on a particular thought conveyed in the last blog, or perhaps better articulate the point, and offer some final thoughts on this important and emerging subject. First, certain points regarding inflationary deleveraging must be reiterated:  Excessively indebted societies must periodically deleverage bad debt to avoid an […]

Excessively indebted societies must periodically deleverage bad debt to avoid an otherwise certain social and economic downfall. Central planners have two options when managing a highly indebted economy: allow painful bear markets and recessions to deleverage the system, which is deflationary (falling prices), or attempt to control a high inflation rate while keeping real interest […]

It all begins with an idea.

It all begins with an idea.

It all begins with an idea.

It all begins with an idea.

Investors generally believe prevailing market conditions will continue into the future, especially at the extreme ends of the cycle, but the reality is the stock market is counterintuitive, tending ultimately to inflict the maximum amount of pain on the largest number of investors possible, and cyclical, predisposed to mean reversion. The US averages have seen […]

The Fed’s policy of perpetual dollar debasement makes it increasingly difficult for common folks to put food on the table, but new technologies present valuable solutions for the nimble. Consider the charter economy, and how it can help your family solve the dilemma of rising costs.     The charter economy is simply a “sharing” economy […]