Month: January 2022

Jerome Powell’s abrupt re-posturing towards inflation sends a resounding message to listening investors: risk matters again. Effective risk management first requires thought and planning. If a pair of winter climbers doesn’t first think about how to survive a whiteout, the probability of separation and disaster escalates when the cloud of wind and snow joins their expedition. Applying sound principles to manage identifiable risks, like carrying a small 15 foot rope to quickly tie to your climbing buddy in a whiteout, can prove critical. What are today’s identifiable risks, and what principles aid in their mitigation?

Accepting the existence of risk enables risk identification. The “fight or flight” response mechanism won’t help you after falling through the ice of a mountain river, or when your tech stocks crash 50% in a week, only forethought will. I perceive the following risks are with us today:

• Powell could be behind the inflation curve, a nightmare scenario for stocks, since inflation and interest rates could rise together.

• Powell’s new inflation posture means the stock bubble suddenly has an enemy with a pin.

• Recent and near-term retirees appear to be facing the dreadful ‘early-retirement bear market’.

• Bonds appear to be in a bigger and more dangerous bubble than stocks.

• Present inflation is eroding the purchasing-power of bank savings at a rate of 50% every 9 years!

• The yield curve may be indicating concerns about the economy.

• Tax hikes are coming.

• Social Security is likely to be ‘means tested’ due to underfunding.

I would liken the present financial landscape to climbing Mount Denali in January, where life-threatening risks are literally everywhere. Consider whether the following strategies may help you navigate your course successfully:

• Increase your emergency savings, and the cash position in your investment accounts.

• Reduce debt, and convert variable rate debt to a fixed interest rate.

• Don’t relinquish earned income without serious consideration.

• Increase your fiscal discipline. Get aggressive and creative in reducing expenses.

• Buy capital-efficient, industry-dominating, dividend-paying, dividend-increasing businesses at a good price.

• Own a chaos hedge or two.

• Establish a long-term mindset towards high quality, high conviction holdings, and reinvest dividends throughout the market cycle.

• Have a clearly-defined exit plan on all ‘non-forever’ holdings and follow it.

• Stay away from the extremes of fear and greed. Don’t hide from inflation in the bank. Avoid making a big bet on a risky position, or doubling down on a losing position. Follow the position sizing rule of 3%-5%.

• Dollar cost average throughout the market cycle.

Think about it, Shaun

“Rule #1 is don’t lose money. Rule #2 is don’t forget Rule #1.” ~Warren Buffet

“He who had received the five talents came forward, bringing five talents more, saying, ‘Master, you delivered to me five talents; here, I have made five talents more’.” ~Matthew 25:20

“Through many dangers, toils and snares I have already come; ‘Tis grace hath brought me safe thus far, and will lead me home.” ~Lyrics from John Newton’s Amazing Grace

The opinions voiced in this material are general, are not intended to provide specific recommendations, and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial. The economic forecasts set forth in this commentary may not develop as predicted.

All investing involves risk including the possible loss of principle. No strategy insures success or protects against loss. Dividend payments are not guaranteed and may be reduced or eliminated at any time by the company.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Dollar cost averaging involves continuous investment in securities regardless of fluctuation in price levels of such securities. An investor should consider their ability to continue purchasing through fluctuating price levels. Such a plan does not assure a profit and does not protect against loss in declining markets.

https://www.fivestarprofessional.com/spotlights/90982

Award based on 10 objective criteria associated with providing quality services to clients such as credentials, experience, and assets under management among other factors. Wealth managers do not pay a fee to be considered or placed on the final list of 2012/2022 Five Star Wealth Managers.

  Following an un-roped ascent of the final 400 feet on the Mountaineer’s Route of Mt. Whitney in 2010, a 60-degree pitch involving mixed, technical climbing, I became disturbed by the amount of risk I had just willingly assumed to my life. Months later I inquired of Rick Wilcox, a highly accomplished mountaineer from North Conway, NH, of his opinion of risking a fall on such treacherous terrain, to which he calmly replied, “that’s climbing; if you’re not willing to assume the risk of a fall, don’t climb”. Investing and planning your family’s financial future requires a degree of risk-taking; consider the following insurance principles to avoid allocating a counter-productive number of your investable dollars towards the insurance of unavoidable risks.

• Consider insuring catastrophic risks only. Why waste precious capital on negligible and improbable risks? That’s like setting a fixed rope to ascend a 30 degree hill. Interestingly, a bunch of climbers died on K2 in 2008 after making that very mistake, later lacking the ropes required on the much steeper terrain above. Your investable capital is like a climber’s rope in that you only have so much of it. If you have ample emergency savings, for example, and are willing to drive defensively, why not skip the collision coverage on your auto insurance policy, especially if your vehicle is older, and invest those dollars instead? Scrutinize every risk with these questions: what is the financial risk? What is the adverse probability? What is the opportunity cost to insure the risk? 

• Insure all catastrophic risks. Failing to insure a catastrophic risk is synonymous with playing roulette with your family’s financial future; don’t do it. I think of insurance as existing solely to cover catastrophic risks, just like my climbing rope, and I look to identify and insure those risks. Examples include: making sure dependent children are provided for in the case of your early death, protecting a spouse before your retirement is fully funded (especially when in debt), protecting against high costs of future care, protecting the family business from estate taxes, and covering liability risk in a wrongful car accident.

• Buy the right type of insurance. Of all the life insurance policies clients have asked me to review over 34 years, I’m guessing close to half were the wrong type of policy, given the nature of the risk. Buy temporary (term) life insurance to cover temporary risks, and permanent life insurance to cover permanent risks. Understand the risk, and the solution will emerge more clearly.

• Buy the right amount of insurance. Never trust an insurance company’s assessment of your financial risk; do your own assessment, or have a fiduciary assess it for you.

• Use an independent insurance agent, and shop around. Always consider multiple providers and policy solutions. Never pay more than you have to for insurance. Do this by making companies compete for your business through an independent agency or exchange.

• Watch your rates. My auto insurer low-balled the quote on my Jeep, but at renewal raised my premium by twice the inflation rate! When I confronted them, they brought the rate back down. Always play hard ball when dealing with insurance companies; that’s what they’re doing with you. Always be ready to replace a policy to save money.

I hope these principles are a blessing to you. Think about it, Shaun.  

“The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it”. ~Proverbs 22:3

The opinions voiced in this material are general, are not intended to provide specific recommendations, and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial.

All investing involves risk including the possible loss of principle. No strategy insures success or protects against loss.

Please keep in mind that insurance companies alone determine insurability and some people may be deemed uninsurable because of health reasons, occupation, and lifestyle choices. Guarantees are based on the claims-paying ability of the insurance company.

https://www.fivestarprofessional.com/spotlights/90982

Award based on 10 objective criteria associated with providing quality services to clients such as credentials, experience, and assets under management among other factors. Wealth managers do not pay a fee to be considered or placed on the final list of 2012/2022 Five Star Wealth Managers.

Forty percent (40%) of company stocks listed on the NASDAQ are down by 50% or more,¹ market breadth in the NASDAQ, Russell Micro Cap Index, and all Asia Indexes are negative and falling,² and credible and accomplished investors are starting to warn of an impending bear market. What factors suggest the stock party may not end just yet, what are the risks to this outlook, and what are prudent investors doing right now to protect both their returns and capital? 

The stock market is one of the greatest wealth building tools in the world, but it is also ruthlessly counter-intuitive, inflicting the maximum amount of pain possible on the maximum number of investors. The following issues suggest the stock market may overcome rising headwinds for now:

• Stocks have not historically peaked at the beginning of a Fed tightening schedule, and rates have not even begun to rise yet; but stay alert, for the Fed has never been smart enough to avoid raising rates too far in an inflation-fighting series of hikes.

• Long bull markets generally end in euphoria with potential investors “all in”, but today market pessimism remains, particularly with institutional money managers and wealthy individual investors. History suggests both will go all in before the music stops.

• Policy, as of now, remains wildly favorable towards owning stocks, and wildly unfavorable towards owning fixed income investments; in fact, though the Fed speaks, nothing in this equation has changed as of yet.

• Since 2008, every time stocks throw a tantrum the Fed quickly decides re-inflating the stock bubble is top priority. Now that the solvency of the U.S. government is a global question, the Fed is highly reluctant to raise rates much, and equally likely to accept a higher rate of inflation. Jerome Powell is not Paul Volcker!

• Major bear markets have always been accompanied by economic recessions, and right now the U.S. economy is growing.

• Recessions are preceded by an inverted yield curve, and save the 20Year and 30Year Treasury Bonds, this has yet to occur.

Risks to this outlook are numerous. The Fed may be behind the inflation curve, which means rate hikes may be accompanied by still rising inflation, a worst case scenario for stocks. The Fed is now panicking, a recipe for policy error. Threat of war with China is rising. The pandemic isn’t over, nor the possibility of additional lockdowns. Any of these could swiftly terminate the ongoing bull market in stocks.

The following actions should prove helpful in successfully navigating today’s dangerous investing landscape:

• Stay well diversified, and obey the position sizing rule of 3%-5% for individual stocks.

• Maintain a well-defined “exit plan” on all non-forever stock holdings, and stick to it.

• Avoid over concentration by maintaining a well-diversified portfolio.

• Build a strong cash position to weather the potential storm, and to have investable cash when great companies are dirt cheap.

• Focus on high quality companies with present streams of income.

• Own a chaos hedge or two.

Happy New Year! Please think about it, Shaun.  

“It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price, than a fair company at a wonderful price.”

~Warren Buffet

“Give a portion to seven, and even eight, for you know not what disaster may happen on earth.” ~Ecclesiastes 11:2 

1 Bloomberg.com, “Number of NASDAQ Stocks Down 50% or More Almost at a Record”, January 6, 2022

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-01-06/number-of-nasdaq-stocks-down-50-or-more-is-almost-at-a-record

2 MarketInOut Stock Screener, January 7, 2022

https://www.marketinout.com/chart/market.php?breadth=advance-decline-line

The opinions voiced in this material are general, are not intended to provide specific recommendations, and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial. The economic forecasts set forth in this commentary may not develop as predicted.

All investing involves risk including the possible loss of principle. No strategy insures success or protects against loss. 

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. 

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

Dividend payments are not guaranteed and may be reduced or eliminated at any time by the company. 

All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. 

Though our culture encourages, in many cases financially supports, and as seen in the cozy relationship between the U.S. government and the Federal Reserve Bank (“the Fed”), actually glorifies debt, debt is indeed potentially dangerous and must at all times be shrewdly managed. Consider the following three principles in your quest to manage debt well.

The most certain way to manage debt effectively is to not have debt. In many cases the most efficient use of your God-given capital is to accelerate the repayment of your debt. You will never accumulate wealth as surely, and seldom as effectively, as when you are debt free. There is a freedom and a peace that visits those free of debt that is never experienced by the perpetually indebted. Be certain you have a clear path to debt-free living before investing, and make sure it is part of your family’s long-term financial plan. Teach your children to manage debt wittedly, leading them by example. Never relinquish your earned income while in debt.

The above statements do not mean debt is a universally bad or evil thing. Debt can enable a student to obtain the specialized education required to sooner engage a fruitful career, provide the owner of a multi-tenement home a rent-free apartment with additional net income, or furnish a small business with enough scale to grow exponentially faster. The issue which distinguishes prudent from imprudent debt has everything to do with that which one does with the borrowed money. All issues considered, is the net financial effect over the life of the loan positive or negative? Prudent loans generally involve investing in assets which produce income and appreciate, the sum of which exceeds all interest paid, and considering the time value of money. Retirement income expert, Doc Eifrig, of Stansberry Research, recommends avoiding the “cardinal sin of borrowing a large amount of money to buy a new car, a highly depreciating asset which loses 5-20% instantaneously”.¹ I suggest you begin to view every temptation to borrow through the “productivity lens”.

Most importantly, keep a strict family budget, run a net positive monthly cash flow, and save and invest wisely. Make sure the acquisition of a new loan does not cause your monthly cash flow to turn negative, even in unfavorable circumstances, and never let your cumulative debt exceed your liquid net worth. If you’re already in the predicament, develop a specific plan to bring it in line expediently, then bring cumulative debt under 10% of net worth, then 5%, then never let it exceed 5% again.

May God bless you in the strict management of your debt, and Happy New Year! Shaun

“The borrower is slave of the lender.” ~Proverbs 22:7

“Owe no one anything, except to love each other.” ~Romans 13:8

1 Dr. Eifrig’s Health & Wealth Bulletin, “Avoid This Cardinal Sin of Personal Finance”, December 22, 2021

The opinions voiced in this material are general, are not intended to provide specific recommendations, and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial. The economic forecasts set forth in this commentary may not develop as predicted.