Shaun Scott No Comments

Sound Retirement Planning in a Financially Precarious World


Today numerous issues complicate and endanger the retirement plans of millions of working Americans. Many find it increasingly difficult to save and invest due to the high cost of living, while others throw their investable dollars out the window on high rents every month due to a lack of affordable homes. The present inflation rate reduces the purchasing power of bank savings by 53% every nine years! The stock market appears to be approaching an inflection point, which may subject recent and near-term retirees to the devastating “early retirement bear market”. Taxes are going up, and traditional retirement accounts are a focus of legislators. Social Security is likely to be “means-tested”, meaning delayed and reduced for many. Medicare benefits are being cut, increasing the cost of Medigap outlays, and longer life expectancies compound the problem. I could go on, but suffice to say future American retirees have it far more difficult than previous generations.

Challenges create opportunity for solutions, and only a carefully constructed, personal financial roadmap will identify the specific solutions, or principles, sufficiently powerful when consistently applied, to overcome such formidable obstacles. Most people put a retirement plan together months before retiring, astutely utilizing about 1% of the time they had to plan the portion of their financial life that will lack earned income. I suggest a consideration of the following facts, followed by a resolute commitment to build and follow your roadmap this year:

  • Net positive monthly cash flow, or a take-home income exceeding gross spending, is THE indispensable condition for achieving your retirement goal. Many workers invest for retirement while accumulating more debt than assets, thinking progress is being made.

  • A detailed household budget enables us to distinguish between fixed and voluntary spending, a figure wealth producers are eager to exploit, but which wealth consumers never address.

  • An accurate assessment of your present financial position, the resources required to fund your well-defined retirement life, the difference between the two, the means and principles to be applied to close the gap, and a vigilant application of your plan, is the only solution to the dilemma. We call it, “Assess, Address, Apply”.

  • General figures alone fall short of effective planning: “Aim small, miss small”! Important detailed considerations include: the percentage of income to designate towards retirement, the most beneficial tax-advantaged plans to employ, the age at which Social Security benefits should begin, and the income solutions to harness (which most benefit those who use time to their advantage).

Financial stewardship, and its rewards, is almost never about how much money you make, and almost always about what you do with the money you make. Think about it, Shaun.

“Live today like no one else, so that later you can live like no one else.” ~David Ramsay

“A good man leaves an inheritance to his children’s children.” ~Proverbs 13:22

The opinions voiced in this material are general, are not intended to provide specific recommendations, and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial. The economic forecasts set forth in this commentary may not develop as predicted.

     

  

https://www.fivestarprofessional.com/spotlights/90982

Award based on 10 objective criteria associated with providing quality services to clients such as credentials, experience, and assets under management among other factors. Wealth managers do not pay a fee to be considered or placed on the final list of 2012/2022 Five Star Wealth Managers.

Shaun Scott No Comments

Clock Is Ticking on Consumer Spending, Credit Market


How can it take 20 minutes for my tea water to boil when I stand and wait, and just 90 seconds when I walk away, ‘all other things being equal’? Perception drives many important facets of our economy; in fact, the indispensable component is a largely subjective phenomenon. How are changing financial conditions certain to eventually swing the pendulum of consumer sentiment, and, therefore, consumer spending, and, therefore, the state of the corporate credit market, and, therefore, the direction of the economy and financial markets? What should you do about it?

The U.S. government judges the growth rate of the domestic economy primarily by Gross Domestic Product, two-thirds of which is consumer spending.¹ One wouldn’t be far off saying, “Consumer spending IS the U.S. economy”. This is the real reason President George W. Bush, following the Trade Center bombing, pleaded with Americans to do their part by going shopping. What drives consumer spending, and how are those conditions changing?

Present drivers of consumer spending are:

  • Following the massive handout by the Treasury Department during, and following the Covid 19 lockdown, consumers paid down debt, banked savings, and are today comparatively cash rich.

  • The highest inflation in 40 years, coupled with supply constraints, is causing consumers to buy future necessities now, borrowing consumption from the future.

  • There is a shortage of willing workers and an abundance of jobs.

  • The “Illusion of Wealth” effect has consumers feeling wealthier than they are, and this is invigorating voluntary spending.

  • Credit is artificially cheap, and loans are artificially easy to obtain.

Changing conditions which drive consumer spending include:

  • The handouts have decreased, and rising costs from high inflation has begun to nibble at consumer savings.

  • Loan costs are rising. By my count, the rate on a 30 year fixed mortgage has increased from 2.85% in late 2021, to 4.58% today, and increase of 61%!²

  • Only so much consumption can be borrowed from the future before a spending lag ensues.

  • Supply constraints will alleviate as new distribution channels are forged, and as domestic production increases for many products.

  • The Fed just promised to increase a key interest rate at every meeting this year, a driver of most other rates.

The conditions are changing which drive consumer spending, the rudder on America’s economic ship. Take cover now for what follows by:

  • Tightening your financial household via strict budgeting.

  • Building cash savings, and carrying a higher cash position in your investment accounts.

  • Diversifying income sources.

  • Focusing on investments with a present income stream, and that possess pricing power.

  • Becoming handy around the house. You Tube helps!

  • Be part of a closely knit group of like-minded people who practically help each other. In short, secure your supply lines!

Think about it, be creative, and enjoy the process. Shaun.

“Everyone also to whom God has given wealth and possessions and power to enjoy them, and to accept his lot and rejoice in his toil-this is the gift of God.” ~Ecclesiastes 5:19

1 FRED, Economic Research, March 18, 2022

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DPCERE1Q156NBEA

2 Nerdwallet, “Current Mortgage and Refi Rates”, March 18, 2022

https://www.nerdwallet.com/mortgages/mortgage-rates

 

The opinions voiced in this material are general, are not intended to provide specific recommendations, and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial. The economic forecasts set forth in this commentary may not develop as predicted.

     

  

https://www.fivestarprofessional.com/spotlights/90982

Award based on 10 objective criteria associated with providing quality services to clients such as credentials, experience, and assets under management among other factors. Wealth managers do not pay a fee to be considered or placed on the final list of 2012/2022 Five Star Wealth Managers.

Shaun Scott No Comments

The Bellwether of the Next Bear Market Recession

One of the most critical survival items in the most accessible pocket of the winter mountaineer’s pack lies a pair of goggles. Experienced climbers understand once the goggles are put on, it’s a matter of time before they freeze, the point at which climbing becomes surviving blind. For this reason, goggles are never used prematurely, and are a harbinger of life-threatening conditions; they are the final, high alert warning, and the opening bell for a ticking clock. What single economic development most dependably warns attentive investors of extreme and imminent market danger? What might a prudent response look like?

A tightening credit market occurs when lending institutions perceive an economic slowdown, and respond by tightening loan requirements and demanding more interest from borrowers. Fewer, more expensive loans send heavily-indebted corporations into financial hardship, which causes layoffs, which reduces consumer spending, which craters the stock market and introduces economic contraction; for this reason, a tightening credit market is ‘the’ bellwether of a bear market recession. One strong indication to the mountaineer the goggles must ‘come out’ is getting pelted in the eyeball with flying ice particles. What two early indicators warn tighter credit looms, and what are these indicators saying today?

  • Copper is used in the production of a wide array of products throughout the global economy, which is why its price and price trend accurately convey macro-economic conditions and sentiment, and therefore, the state and direction of the credit market. Copper is presently in a raging bull market with no indication of slowing down.

  • An earlier indicator than copper of economic and credit market trouble is an inverted yield curve, which has preceded 6 of the last 7 recessions over 60 years with a single false positive.¹  The yield curve is flattening noticeably, but is inverted only between the 20 & 30 Year Treasury Bonds.   

These two credit market indicators suggest the economy is on solid ground, confirming other economic reports like unemployment, GDP growth, and corporate earnings. Keep in mind a war-driven supply shock in an existing 40 year high inflationary environment can swing the economic pendulum far faster than is ordinarily the case, so stay nimble and alert.

Prudent posturing might include:

  • Buying capital-efficient, dividend aristocrats when attractively priced

  • Owning a chaos hedge or two

  • Carrying a stronger cash position than usual

  • Concentrating on assets and businesses with a strong, established income stream, and the ability to pass higher costs on to the consumer

  • Reducing ownership of assets and businesses with no present income stream, especially those without near-term profitability.

Think about it, Shaun.   

“Give a portion to seven, or even to eight, for you know not what disaster may happen on earth.” ~Ecclesiastes 11:2

“It’s far better to buy a great company at a fair price than a fair company at a great price.” ~Warren Buffet

 1 Union Bank, Market and Economic Outlook, “Understanding the Inverted Yield Curve: The Basics”, September 24, 2019

https://www.unionbank.com/private-banking/perspectives/market-economic-outlook/inverted-yield-curve-explained

The opinions voiced in this material are general, are not intended to provide specific recommendations, and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial. The economic forecasts set forth in this commentary may not develop as predicted.

     

  

https://www.fivestarprofessional.com/spotlights/90982

Award based on 10 objective criteria associated with providing quality services to clients such as credentials, experience, and assets under management among other factors. Wealth managers do not pay a fee to be considered or placed on the final list of 2012/2022 Five Star Wealth Managers.