Month: March 2024

‘Knowledge is power’ in at least one practical sense: it equips a person to make wiser decisions. Ed Viesturs, arguably the greatest mountaineer America ever produced, understood this principle when he read “Freedom of the Hills”, a 567page manual on mountaineering, twice cover to cover before putting a pair of crampons on. Warren Buffet consistently makes more profitable investment decisions than most investors because he knows more about the financial condition of the businesses he purchases. Consider the following ways you can increase your knowledge of the Social Security (SS) program to help maximize future benefits:

• Understand payments are based on earnings from your 35 highest income years, and that benefits are reduced for every year under 35 you didn’t work. Consider working until the 35-year mark is reached, even if it requires a part-time job in early retirement.

• Since benefits are also based on age, know your full retirement age (FRA), between age 65 and 67 for most, and the reduction of benefits for those receiving them before FRA by $1 for every $2 earned over $22,320 (2024).¹ Post full-time employment, working part-time and deferring benefits until FRA, especially if the 35-years aren’t yet attained, or if it is but the part-time earnings replace a lower earnings year, can be a highly beneficial strategy, especially for those who live a long life.

• Time your ‘start date’ (see Implications of the SS Start Date) for maximum benefits, and to complement other income sources. For those working full-time past FRA, future benefits continue to increase until age 70. For those who regret ‘triggering’ benefits too early, benefits can be suspended between FRA and age 70, and the claim itself can be withdrawn by repaying total benefits received.

• Have a spousal-benefit filing strategy. Lower-earning spouses can file earlier while the higher-earner’s benefits increase to age 70, at which time the couple can switch to filing on the higher-earner’s income history. Know which strategy best fits into your personal financial plan.

• Review your ‘Yearly Earnings Record’ reported on the annual SS statement and notify Social Security Administration of underreported income.

• Up to 85% of SS benefits are taxable.² Discover what portion of your SS benefit will be taxable and include it as you work out the logistical intricacies of your future retirement income. Have your investment advisor and tax planner work together to help achieve maximum tax efficiency over your lifetime.

Knowledge of mountain weather told Ed Viesturs to sit in his tent and drink hot tea during the 1996 storm that claimed the lives of a dozen climbers on Mt. Everest, including several of Ed’s dear friends, and then he summited in grief to honor their lives in the following weeks. The knowledge you gain of Social Security, in particular your earnings history, taxability of benefits, and claiming options, and the corresponding wise decisions you make on this issue, could be as financially beneficial to your family as Ed’s great decision was to his that fateful day.

Think about it and may your celebration of Easter be enlivened by an unshakeable hope in a resurrected Savior this week!

Your friend, Shaun.

“If you confess with your mouth that Jesus is Lord and believe in your heart that God raised him from the dead, you will be saved.” ~Romans 10:9

1 Social Security Administration, March 28, 2024 www.ssa.gov

2 Smart Asset, “10 Strategies to Maximize Social Security Benefits”, August 18, 2023, by Rebecca Lake

The opinions voiced in this material are general, are not intended to provide specific recommendations, and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial.

This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax advisor.

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The concept of investment diversification involves mitigating the risk of a catastrophic loss by owning numerous, low correlation assets. If capping exposure to a single security or asset class is wise because it effectively tempers investment risk, wouldn’t it also be wise to apply this principle to other hazards, like unknown future tax rates on income and gains? The first time I diversified my strategy to maintain core body temperature in the mountains by throwing a survival blanket in the backpack, it saved a dear friend’s life! Imagine a legislative scenario that exposes your lack of a tax strategy and begin diversifying exposure to one of ‘The Big Three’ risks against your retirement, your estate, and the future inheritance of your loved ones: the future tax hike.

I’d like to begin by identifying the potential pitfalls of the traditional retirement account because I believe most investors have allocated too high a percentage of their retirement savings to this “yet to be taxed” account type. Keep in mind this investment option also possesses significant advantages in many instances:

• Since none of your traditional retirement plan dollars have yet been taxed, the IRS co-owns the account with you and can increase their portion with the stroke of a Congressional pen. The probability of this occurring, given the U.S. government’s indebtedness and the unfunded status of Social Security and Medicare, is higher than most people understand, including CPA’s.

• All future withdrawals from traditional retirement accounts are taxed as income, in many cases resulting in a higher tax than the capital gains rate.

• Fully income taxable Required Minimum Distributions (RMD’s) must be taken annually beginning at age 73 whether the income is needed or not, which pushes many large account holders into a higher bracket.

• The Secure Act of 2020 imposed an account depletion requirement for non-spousal beneficiaries at 10 years from the original owner’s date of death; given the high probability your children will inherit your IRA during their peak earning years, this is a brilliant strategy by the IRS, your retirement account partner. You better have a strategy too!

Consider two attractive alternatives to the traditional retirement account, which are highly complementary when funded appropriately, given your individual tax situation:

• The Roth IRA and/or Roth 401(k) effectively release the IRS from the partnership by virtue of the tax deferred growth and tax-free withdrawal benefits. Advanced planning software can effectively compare the Roth and Traditional options within your personal financial plan. The younger you are, the more likely the Roth option will benefit you more than the traditional option.

• A non-retirement brokerage account differs from retirement accounts in that no legal contract is engaged with a fiscally reckless institution which can and has change(d) the rules in the middle of the game to its own advantage. Both gains and losses can be utilized annually to your tax advantage, even against assets not held in the brokerage account. There is no contribution limit, minimum withdrawal age, or mandatory distributions, and virtually any listed security is available. Penalty-free access to a potentially large amount of capital in a relatively tax-controlled distribution is a distinct benefit to investors.

Conrad Anker, perhaps the best technical climber in the world today, packed 200 pounds of exactly the right equipment to succeed in the First Ascent of Meru, formerly thought to be an unclimbable Himalayan peak. Effectively planning your retirement and ultimate estate distribution is equally complex, and the right mix of these three investment options can help you succeed. I strongly suggest that you introduce your fiduciary advisor, in an advisory relationship, to your CPA and have them work together for your tax benefit.

Think about it, Shaun.

“Give a portion to seven, or even to eight, for you know not what disaster may happen on earth.” ~Ecclesiastes 11:2

“The hardest thing in the world to understand is the income tax.” ~Albert Einstein

The opinions voiced in this material are general, are not intended to provide specific recommendations, and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial.

All investing involves risk including the possible loss of principle. No strategy ensures success or protects against loss. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax advisor.

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The greatest danger I have faced in the mountains followed the willful disregard of a warning. Our Designer equipped us with a keen ability to perceive danger, most notably through fear, a healthy human attribute respect by the wise. The challenge with investing is fear instigates a herd mentality in a counterintuitive market, the most capital-destructive combination possible. Many notable investors, Warren Buffet included, profess the avoidance of catastrophic risk is the single most important aspect of successful investing. Let’s practice Mr. Buffet’s advice by recognizing and avoiding one of the biggest dangers in the market today.

In the 2010’s, following the Fed’s prolonged suppression of interest rates near zero percent, the risk/reward formation for Treasury Bonds was accurately described on Wall Street as “return-free risk”. A 10Year Treasury bond purchased at that time virtually guaranteed a loss of value against inflation for a decade, and was yet exposed to a large potential loss of principle should interest rates rise, which they did. The regional banks which failed in 2022 did so because they bought too many 10Year Treasury bonds. Consider the factors which might make today’s setup for High Yield corporate (‘Junk’) bonds even more dangerous:

• ‘Junk’ bonds are issued by companies with low credit ratings and the highest probability of debt default and are the riskiest bond type.

• The spread between the higher interest rate ‘Junk’ bonds must pay investors to compensate for default risk and the lower interest rate government bonds enjoy paying is just 3.26%, the lowest spread since Fed rate hikes began two years ago.¹

• An unprecedented wall of maturing corporate debt must be refinanced in the next three years at a far higher interest rate. Forensic accountant, Joel Litman, recently estimated 30% of these companies do not possess the earnings to support their debt at present rates.

• There’s a fair probability of recession in the next three years, which would cause the credit market to tighten, which would cause yields on ‘Junk’ bonds to rise, which would cause the value of existing ‘Junk’ bonds to fall, potentially a lot.²

The worst performing phase of the ‘Junk’ bond market cycle is the tight credit market recession, which might lie dead ahead. In spite of this risk, the yield on ‘Junk’ bonds, presently 5.78%,³ is insultingly low, which suggests that those who own them are misjudging risk. Why would an investor risk being stampeded in a mass exodus for less than 1% additional interest than a risk-free Treasury Bill? Let’s heed the warning ‘Junk’ bond owners are sending us, be happy with 5% risk-free interest, and reconsider an investment in ‘Junk’ bonds when they are on sale at a later date. Let’s also recognize a large discount may be forthcoming, and keep this asset class on our financial radar.

Think about it, Shaun.

“The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.” ~Proverbs 27:12

1 As measured by ICE Bank of America U.S. High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread 2 Daily Wealth, “The Worst Deal in All of Finance”, by Brett Eversole, February 29, 2024 3 Yahoo Finance, HYG Yield, March 8, 2024 https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HYG

The opinions voiced in this article are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a decision.

The opinions expressed in this material do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial.

High yield/junk bonds (grade BB or below) are not investment grade securities, and are subject to higher interest rate, credit, and liquidity risks than those graded BBB and above. They generally should be part of a diversified portfolio for sophisticated investors.

Bond yields are subject to change. Certain call or special redemption features may exist which could impact yield.

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I remember well a particular White Mountain storm my buddy and I survived ten or so years ago. On the descent from Mt. Adams to camp, 90 mph winds tossed us about like rag dolls, froze our goggles and then pelted our eyeballs with flying ice, buried every trail marker in 5-foot drifts, which buried us to the chest on every fall-through, and had us both convinced we’d be spending the night in a snow cave. Then my eagle-eye buddy spotted a cairn and got us out of there and to a hot cup of tea in a heated cabin in 30 minutes! This story has strong parallels to the Fed’s grand monetary experiment during, and following the Covid lockdown, the 40-year high inflation it created, along with a 2022 bear market in stocks and some of the worst 24-month performance for bonds on record, and now the soft economic landing the Fed seems to be miraculously engineering. Let’s consider the implications of this unique case study.

The Fed’s experiment in 2020 involved fabricating an unprecedented volume of new currency units with a keystroke, and then working with government agencies to deliver cash directly to individuals and institutions in need of a bailout due to the financially incapacitating lockdown. This process deviated from the normal distribution channel for newly printed dollars, which formerly kept those dollars in the possession of member banks, and rather placed them directly into the hands of spenders. The exercise taught regulators and Fed members that consumers more eagerly spend free money than earned money, and that when you force businesses to close their doors, they don’t just turn the lights off, they often shut the operation down.

While most of the resulting inflation from this experiment was associated with hyper-enabled consumer spending, now largely alleviated, some of it is entrenched in the resulting, yet unresolved, broken global supply chain. Investors are wise to recognize the danger of this entrenched inflation, just as we did those 5 foot deep, life-threatening snow drifts. Consider the probabilities:

• The Fed will likely leave interest rates higher for longer, and later reduce them less than the market believes.

• Homeowners with high mortgage rates will have less opportunity to refinance at lower rates in the near future than they realize.

• There is a massive wall of corporate debt which will mature in the next 30 months, and which must be refinanced at a far higher rate than the present interest rate. This will likely lead to a credit event and economic recession which will introduce market volatility. Big investment opportunities will accompany these events.

In summary, it is not time to dig a snow cave! Policy is generally favorable, a big plus for quality stocks. Bonds issued by companies with controlled debt and solid balance sheets look favorable. Maintain a strong cash position but be sure to receive the going interest rate. The Fed seems to be engineering a remarkable soft landing, but like our mountain ordeal, it is mostly attributable to God’s mercy, not the Fed’s intelligence. No one can defy principles indefinitely without due consequence, and honest Fed members admit the present path is unsustainable long-term, so remain vigilant.

Think about it, Shaun.

“My God shall supply all your need according to his riches in glory in Christ Jesus.”  ~Philippians 4:19

The opinions voiced in this article are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate qualified professional prior to making a decision.

The opinions expressed in this material do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial.

https://www.fivestarprofessional.com/spotlights/90982

Award based on 10 objective criteria associated with providing quality services to clients such as credentials, experience, and assets under management among other factors. Wealth managers do not pay a fee to be considered or placed on the final list of 2012/2022 Five Star Wealth Managers.