‘Market Top’ Indicator, Declining Breadth, Triggers

There are many reliable signals which indicate an approaching multi-year stock market peak. Early warnings include excessive speculation among novice investors, high valuations, and high levels of margin investing, signals all flashing red today. Mid warnings include weakness in small cap stocks, which appear to be rolling-over now, and in transportation stocks, which have been falling since May, as well as declining market breadth. The Advance/Decline Line shows how broadly stocks are participating in a market advancement, and is the primary gauge of market breadth.¹ The 7’Th of Bob Farrell’s 10 Rules of Investing states “Markets are strongest when they are broad, and weakest when they narrow to a handful of blue-chip names”.² Strong market breadth is critical to sustain an advancing bull market, but declining breadth, such as is occurring in some U.S. sectors (and foreign markets) today, reveals a bull market losing steam. What does this development suggest about the lifespan of the ongoing bull market? Might it reveal characteristics of the inevitable bear market to follow? How should investors prepare?

Advance/Decline Line charts for the NASDAQ, RUSSELL 3000, AND RUSSELL MICRO indexes all show declining trend-lines, while those of the DOW JONES, S&P 500, and RUSSELL 1000 seem to reveal a topping pattern.³ It’s noteworthy the trend-line for Hong Kong’s HSI, Singapore’s STI, Malaysia’s KLSE, and China’s Shanghai SE are all in free-fall,⁴ suggesting whatever market event looms is likely to be a global event.

An interesting study done in 2019 by Lowry Research on major market tops over the past 90 years revealed two consistent phenomena: the longer the major indexes advanced on deteriorating breadth, the longer it took for stocks to reach bottom from the peak, and the longer each ensuing bear market lasted. The longest divergence by far was the 24 months preceding The Crash of 1929, in which case the DOW JONES took 3 years to find bottom, and 25 years to fully recover. The shortest divergence was 1 month, and the average was 9 months.⁵ If our present case falls within the parameters of this impressive study, a) the present bull market can continue for two more years, b) but could end at any moment, and c) we are likely within 9 months of a major, multi-year peak in stocks. This is consistent with the forecast of many top investors today.

Since the divergence between falling market breadth and rising index levels has only just begun in the present cycle, there is no way to know how long the bull might run, how long the fundamental downtrend of the coming bear market might last, or how many months or years the recovery to all-time highs will require, but further indications will surface when the coming top is recognized in hindsight. Stay diversified with proper asset allocation, use proper position-sizing, incorporate a chaos hedge, carry a bigger cash position, avoid over-reacting, and dollar cost average the whole bust/recovery cycle, in what will likely be a classic and painful, yet healthy and cleansing bear market presenting wonderful opportunities to patient investors.

Think about it, Shaun.

“Markets tend to return to the mean over time. Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction. There are no new eras; excesses are never permanent. Exponential rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways. The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom. Bear markets have three stages: sharp down, reflexive rebound and a drawn-out fundamental downtrend. When all the experts and forecasts agree, something else is going to happen. Bull markets are more fun than bear markets.” ~Bob Farrell’s Rules of Investing (Rule Numbers 1-5, 8-10)

“Give a portion to seven, or even to eight, for you know not what disaster may happen on earth.” ~Eccliastes 11:2

1,5 Lowry White Paper, “How Severe Will The Next Bear Market Be?”, April 2, 2019 2 Stock Charts, “Bob Farrell’s 10 Rules”, August 6, 2021

https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=overview:bob_farrell_10_rules

3,4 Market In Out, Stock Screener, August 6, 2021

https://www.marketinout.com/chart/market.php?breadth=advance-decline-line

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The opinions voiced in this material are general, are not intended to provide specific recommendations, and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial.

Dollar cost averaging requires continuous investment in securities regardless of fluctuation in price levels of such securities. An investor should consider their ability to continue purchasing through fluctuating price levels. Such a plan does not assure a profit and does not protect against loss in declining markets.

All investing involves risk including the possible loss of principle. No strategy assures success or protects against loss.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.