The Transitory Inflation Narrative vs. Soaring Prices

The U.S. central bank (‘the Fed’), in its attempt to maintain power and credibility while simultaneously diluting the currency faster than during WW II, is desperate to convince consumers and investors inflation is transitory and will soon moderate. The mere threat of “tapering” bond purchases, a controlled way for ‘the Fed’ to raise interest rates in an attempt to slow inflation by restricting loan growth, quickly brought Wall Street into subjection to the narrative. But with soaring producer and consumer prices, emerging dollar alternatives, and notable investors sounding the inflation alarm, what are the basic arguments, which way do the facts lean, and how can investors protect themselves in both scenarios?

The transitory inflation argument rests most securely on the “marginal utility of debt” (MUD) thesis, most notably defended by excellent economist, Lacy Hunt, of Hoisington Investment Management, which suggests the economy’s ability to grow diminishes as an excessive debt load siphons off an increasing percentage of otherwise productive capital to unproductive debt-service payments, miring the economy in disinflation.¹ Though Hunt admits a crisis of confidence in the currency, manifested in surging money velocity, or the rate at which dollars change hands, can at some point subvert the transitory inflation/MUD argument, he doesn’t believe it has, and firmly expects an imminent return to disinflationary conditions.

Rising prices are more persuasive than theories presented by well-educated economists for legendary investor, Stan Druckenmiller, Stansberry Research’s Doc Eifrig, Tradesmith’s Keith Kaplan, and many other top investors today. The persistent inflation argument suggests that when the money supply is increased without a corresponding increase in the amount of goods and services in the economy, price increases will result: since ‘the Fed’ can’t stop printing money without crashing the economy and financial markets, inflation is here to stay. Tradesmith Daily recently reported the following YOY price increases: car rentals 87%, used cars 45%, gasoline 45%, hotel rooms 17%, and fruit 7%.² Doc Eifrig recently reported a 200% jump in oil prices, 300% for lumber (since 2020), and 40% for paper, as he released his “New Era Playbook” for what he clearly sees as a lasting inflationary environment.³

The truth is both arguments are viable. Many complicated factors affect price trends, and money velocity, a largely subjective phenomenon, and therefore one difficult to perceive, will ultimately judge the matter. As top investor, Warren Buffet, astutely reveals, inflation is a hidden tax, and an inflationary environment introduces new rules to investing: 1) the purchasing power of a company’s retained earnings will be scrutinized, 2) the impact of inflation and taxes on a company’s bottom line will be examined, 3) companies with strong free cash flow will be favored, and 4) companies able to pass inflationary costs to consumers will be preferred.⁴ Yet another advantage to the purchase of great businesses, namely capital-efficient, dividend-paying, dividend- increasing, industry-dominating companies, at reasonable prices, is their resilient advantage during inflationary periods. Investors may also be wise owning an inflation/chaos hedge or two, a higher cash position than normal, and by keeping a watchful eye on positions vulnerable to persistent inflation, like high multiple tech stocks and high yield corporate bonds.

Think about it. Shaun

“It is far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price, than a fair company at a wonderful price.” ~Warren Buffet

“A false balance is an abomination to the Lord, but a just weight is his delight.” ~Proverbs 11:1

1 Canadian Insider, “Lacy Hunt: Bonds, Growth and Jobs in a Disinflationary Stew”, March 29, 2021

https://www.canadianinsider.com/ultramoney/media/1_93t0y54o

2,4 Tradesmith Daily, “FOUR KEY INFLATION LESSONS FROM WARREN BUFFET, July 14, 2021

https://tradesmithdaily.com/educational/four-key-inflation-lessons-from-warren-buffett/

3 Retirement Millionaire SPECIAL REPORTS: “The ‘New Era’ Playbook”, June 30, 2021

The opinions voiced in this material are general, are not intended to provide specific recommendations, and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial. The economic forecasts set forth in this commentary may not develop as predicted.

All investing involves risk including the possible loss of principle. No strategy insures success or protects against loss.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against loss.

There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.