Today’s Disruptive Global Economic Trends
Disruptive trends are in place in the world today which are changing the social and economic experience for virtually all people everywhere. This week let’s identify a few of these primary shifts in mass behavior, not to judge the moral integrity or economic feasibility of these developments, for a sufficient number of policymakers with sufficient power and wealth have collectively determined to pursue, and ultimately implement these changes: they are going to happen. Rather, let’s simply acknowledge the trends and begin considering the financial implications of each.
Let’s face it, robots are incomparably more productive at accomplishing repetitive tasks than humans, and in today’s highly inflationary environment, productivity is paramount. Robots don’t get sick or need sleep or rest, and they don’t require benefits or over-time pay. While robotics benefits shareholders and corporate balance sheets, it threatens the human jobs it can potentially displace. Does that include yours? Might the displacement of employees caused by the advent of robotics introduce a universal basic income in America, and with it widespread dependence on government for basic subsistence? How exposed is your private wealth to such a development?
The perception that recent climate variation is caused directly and exclusively by human behavior has invigorated a powerful trend towards the development of renewable energies, including financial penalties on companies emitting an excess of “greenhouse gases”, but financial bonuses to those with the means of purchasing “carbon credits”. The (too) early abandonment of oil and gas holdings in this long transition from fossil fuels to renewable energies may have created a substantial investment opportunity short-term for the oil dinosaur, but this may ultimately be the biggest economic disruption in world history to date.
“Smart cars” were the first step towards autonomous, electric vehicles, powered by modern battery technology. I recently read America’s “car fleet cycle” runs 15+years, and that only 50% of today’s car owners intend to buy electric, so this, too, is a multi-decade trend. But might gasoline surcharges be applied, and a special license issued for gas purchases, to accelerate the trend?
Blockchain technology provides investors a new “store of value”, and allows for transactions to occur faster, cheaper, and without counter-party risk, benefits the rich are not ignoring.
The emergence of Asia is the final trend I’ll mention today, and the chart below says it all.1
These are some of the disruptive trends that should be on the radar of investors today. Think about it, Shaun.
1 https://howmuch.net/articles/trade-timelapse-usa-china
The opinions voiced in this material are general, are not intended to provide specific recommendations, and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial. The economic forecasts set forth in this commentary may not develop as predicted.