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Inflation-Taming Budget Strategies


Financial success, or exemplary stewardship, involves both earning money, and the judicious appropriation of those earnings. Astute budgeting is the indispensable ingredient to financial success for both families and businesses, and high inflation magnifies its value, as well as the consequences to those who neglect it. What strategies can you employ on both the income and expense sides of your own budget to tame inflation and thrive in the ongoing stagflationary environment?

Frugality can’t help us if we have no income; successful budgeting requires earning money. Regarding this half of the budget, consider the following:

  • Develop a strong work ethic. There is no substitute, and it will give you an advantage in the workplace, but don’t be a workaholic.

  • Trade up. Be aware of opportunities for career advancement, and use it as leverage in your present job. Never relinquish your job before securing subsequent employment.

  • Continuously advance your skillset, and specialization in your field. Make sure there’s opportunity for this before accepting a position.  

  • Strive for excellence in your daily work, for “a man skilled in his work will serve before kings” (Proverbs 22:29).

  • Be creative to find alternative income opportunities. Consider the Charter Economy.

  • Don’t retire too early. Big financial implications exist, but work also brings balance and purpose to the years of our strength.

The second half of the budget is the more neglected, and frivolous discretionary spending in a high inflation environment is consequential. Develop the following spending disciplines:

  • Know where your money is going. Identify every expense, and categorize each as either fixed or discretionary.

  • Minimize fixed expenses with militant comparison shopping. Obtain multiple quotes on all large purchases. Minimize discretionary spending by learning to go without.

  • Eradicate impulsive spending. Never buy under sales pressure. Never carry consumer credit balances.

  • Have a plan to become debt free. Never retire while in debt. Make sure your debt is invested with “net productivity” (of interest). Treat your debt like a pet scorpion: beat it into submission, starve it, and don’t feel bad if you terminate it!

  • Carry emergency savings (equal to 9 months annual household expenses) to negate ‘budget disruptions’.

  • Scrutinize off budget spending ruthlessly. Realize less spending carries the same weight as more income.

Every budget must achieve a ‘net positive cash flow’, meaning, after tax income must exceed gross spending. Once there, consider the following to bring balance and perspective to your financial life:

  • Give generously, especially to those who can’t pay you back. Money can’t own those refusing to place too high a value on it.

  • Thoroughly enjoy a periodic vacation to recharge your batteries. Enjoy the fruits of your labor, and the blessing of your talents and employment.

  • Invest for the future, for you may not always be able to work. “A wise man leaves an inheritance to his children’s children” (Proverbs 13:22).

Think about it, Shaun. 

“God loves a cheerful giver” ~2Corinthians 9:7

 

The opinions voiced in this material are general, are not intended to provide specific recommendations, and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial. The economic forecasts set forth in this commentary may not develop as predicted.

All investing involves risk including the possible loss of principle. No strategy insures success or protects against loss. Dividend payments are not guaranteed and may be reduced or eliminated at any time by the company.

Dollar cost averaging involves continuous investment in securities regardless of fluctuation in price.

 

 

 

 

     

  

https://www.fivestarprofessional.com/spotlights/90982

Award based on 10 objective criteria associated with providing quality services to clients such as credentials, experience, and assets under management among other factors. Wealth managers do not pay a fee to be considered or placed on the final list of 2012/2022 Five Star Wealth Managers.

Shaun Scott No Comments

Surviving the Stagflationary Storm


To survive a threatening winter storm above tree-line, mountaineers must think, stay hydrated and fueled, keep the core temperature stable, avoid injury, and chart a course to expediently descend the mountain. The storm doesn’t care what a great climber you are; the neglect of any of these things may get you killed. Execution is all that matters. The ongoing stagflationary storm is punishing asset prices, devouring incomes, and threatening the economy with recession; it is equally hazardous! The 1967 “deadliest ever” storm on Denali lasted over a week and claimed seven lives of a party of twelve experienced mountaineers. Astonishingly, five starved or froze cowering in a snow cave or tent. Consider the following actions to survive what may eventually be renamed, “The Great Stagflation of the 2020’s”:

  • Maintain a net positive cash flow by working hard, by improving earning potential with increased specialization in your field, and with the strictest budgeting of your life.

  • Dollar cost average into long-term investment accounts throughout the market cycle, at minimum until the next bull market is underway.

  • Minimize inflationary damage to cash savings by seeking a higher fixed interest rate in alternative products. Abandon the ‘bank only’ bias that feasts on the purchasing power of your savings.

  • Beware the risk to low quality and long duration bonds from both rising interest rates and a weakening economy. Understand your exposure to the bond bubble, particularly with target date, balanced, and asset allocation ETF’s and mutual funds.

  • Think outside your normal box to find high quality investments with significant, present income streams, especially those able to pass price increases on to consumers.

  • Beware the inflationary risk to all growth stocks, as they promise a future dividend already being consumed by inflation. If you own them, take a long-term approach and toughen up.

  • Understand the investing environment has changed. “Buy the dip” growth investors have been taken to the woodshed, and “Don’t fight the Fed” realists are surviving. The Fed is in full panic mode and is not likely to revert to the printing press, its primary trick, until there is significantly more pain in the stock market and economy.

  • Build portfolio cash to take advantage of low stock multiples when the Fed does try to cure the pain with the very thing that caused it, a near certainty in due course.

Think about it, Shaun.   

“The Fed, in the disposition of its experimental policies, performs as both arsonist and firefighter” ~Jim Grant

“Inflation is taxation without legislation.” ~Milton Friedman

 

The opinions voiced in this material are general, are not intended to provide specific recommendations, and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial. The economic forecasts set forth in this commentary may not develop as predicted.

All investing involves risk including the possible loss of principle. No strategy insures success or protects against loss. Dividend payments are not guaranteed and may be reduced or eliminated at any time by the company.

Dollar cost averaging involves continuous investment in securities regardless of fluctuation in price.

 

 

     

  

https://www.fivestarprofessional.com/spotlights/90982

Award based on 10 objective criteria associated with providing quality services to clients such as credentials, experience, and assets under management among other factors. Wealth managers do not pay a fee to be considered or placed on the final list of 2012/2022 Five Star Wealth Managers.

Shaun Scott No Comments

Inflation’s Two Most Probable Paths


Three weather systems converge at the summit of Mt. Washington in New Hampshire, a weather phenomenon meteorologists refer as “The Vortex”, producing one of the windiest places on planet earth. The Mt. Washington Observatory (MWO) confirms this violent swirl produces wind speeds exceeding 100 MPH on average every week in winter, reliably presenting climbers venturing above tree-line with one of two weather scenarios: uncomfortably windy, and life-threateningly windy. Similarly, and also the result of three converging catalysts, American workers and investors in the coming decade will likely contend with one of two inflation scenarios: uncomfortable inflation, and life-threatening inflation. What are the three catalysts indicating the high probability of this outlook? What dependable gauge will soonest reveal inflation’s prevailing path? What are the implications of each to the financial markets?

It’s extraordinarily fun to spend other people’s money, but when central bankers expand the money supply at a rate exceeding economic growth, the seeds of price inflation are sown. Money-printing is the sole, indispensable cause of all inflation. While ‘The Vortex’ creates an environment conducive to high winds, specific storms trigger extreme wind velocity. The Covid19 lockdown directly resulted in producers and distributors of essential products shutting down unused facilities, disrupting the global supply chain on an unprecedented scale. The resulting supply constraints triggered the highest price inflation in 40 years. Humans are fascinating beings. As King David said, “fearfully and wonderfully have I been made” (Psalm 139:14). The behavior of groups of humans, however, as proven throughout history, is often illogical, unpredictable, and destructive, and when inflation factors into the behavior of the average consumer, the ingredients of lasting inflation have been mixed.

MWO issues Winter Storm Warnings to alert climbers of life-threatening conditions above tree-line. Many notable investors consider the yield on the 10Year Treasury bond to be the world’s most accurate economic forecaster today. Recently subverting its own 35 year downtrend line, it suggests price inflation is entrenched, and warns that America’s mid-term inflation outlook ranges from uncomfortable to potentially life-threatening.

Scenario 1: inflation moderates, causing the economy to weaken, causing the 10 Year yield to decline, allowing ‘the Fed’ to slow its aggressive tightening plans. Stocks and the economy struggle until the Fed pivots to the next “easing” cycle, at which time both stabilize and begin their respective growth cycles.

Scenario 2: inflation remains elevated near present levels or grinds higher, bringing the 10 Year yield with it, forcing ‘the Fed’ to continue tightening even as market stress elevates and the economy further weakens. This continues until a sovereign debt crisis occurs, causing ‘the Fed’ to lower rates in a high inflation environment, which would further accelerate inflation, causing unexpected and potentially devastating consequences to the stock market and economy. ¹

Climbers survive New Hampshire’s life-threatening winter winds by thinking critically and acting decisively. The present inflation is worthy of both. Think about it, Shaun.   

“The wise sees trouble coming and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.” Proverbs 27:12” ~Proverbs 27:12

1 Inside TRADESMITH, by Justin Brill, “This Is the Worst Case Scenario for Stocks”, June 14, 2022

The opinions voiced in this material are general, are not intended to provide specific recommendations, and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial. The economic forecasts set forth in this commentary may not develop as predicted.

 

     

  

https://www.fivestarprofessional.com/spotlights/90982

Award based on 10 objective criteria associated with providing quality services to clients such as credentials, experience, and assets under management among other factors. Wealth managers do not pay a fee to be considered or placed on the final list of 2012/2022 Five Star Wealth Managers.

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Inflation Report Renounces Powell’s “Transience” Fable


The great thing about hiring a professional guide on a big mountain expedition is the guide goes with you, and is even tied to the same rope. Subterfuge is of no use to the mountain guide, as their own life is dependent on the counsel they give. Central bankers are none the sort, yet have garnered sufficient investor confidence to in many instances replace actionable policy with mere words, words the market refers to as ‘guidance’, guidance the bankers know does not represent a dispensation of truth, but a ploy aimed at impacting consumer and investor behavior. How did Friday’s inflation report reveal exactly this of Jerome Powell’s recent “transient inflation” myth, how will the development impact your family, and what should you do about it?

Fed Chair Powell is of the same mold as former Chair Ben Bernanke, who on the eve of The Great Recession told Congress he saw “no recession coming”,¹ and Chair Janet Yellen, who in 2017, when a higher percentage of U.S. companies were considered to be Zombie Corporations than at any time in U.S. history, said she did not believe there would be another financial crisis in her lifetime.² Powell followed the dissimulation of his predecessors in 2021 by declaring without basis and for many months that inflation was “transitory”, only to be forced to shamefully retire the term in December by resiliently high levels of price increases.³ The 10 Year Treasury yield, considered by many astute investors to be the best economic indicator in the world today, has broken above the 35 year downtrend line,⁴ and is warning high price inflation is entrenched.

Friday’s CPI release for May shocked Wall Street, now in a major selloff, by beating expectations to the upside with yet another “highest in 40 years” release. Though declining consumer discretionary spending is causing price inflation in that arena to moderate, it offers consumers and investors little comfort since price increases in the food, energy, and housing sectors continue to run hot. This means more of everyone’s income will be absorbed by these universally needed items, leaving less disposable income for everything else.

Critical solutions include strict budgeting, gaining skills to maintain your own home and property, planning gas-use carefully, enjoying life’s free pleasures, being part of a group of independent and like-minded people, growing a vegetable garden, and working both smart and hard. If there is a blessing in this rampant price inflation, it’s that it is presently driven by supply constraints and war, and not by a widespread loss of confidence in our currency, a far more destructive phenomenon.

Think about it, Shaun.   

 “By a continuing process of inflation, government can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.” ~John Maynard Keynes

1 NPR, “Bernanke Sees No Recession, but Big Challenge”, February 27, 2008 https://www.npr.org/2008/02/27/74992288/bernanke-sees-no-recession-but-big-challenge#:~:text=Bernanke%20Sees%20No%20Recession%2C%20but%20Big%20Challenge%20Visiting%20Congress%20to,keeping%20a%20lid%20on%20inflation

2 Reuters, “Fed’s Yellen expects no new financial crisis in ‘our lifetimes”, June 27, 2017 https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-fed-yellen/feds-yellen-expects-no-new-financial-crisis-in-our-lifetimes-idUSKBN19I2I5

3 Bloomberg, “Powell’s ‘Transitory’ Retreat is Just the Beginning”, December 21, 2021 https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-12-01/powell-s-transitory-mistake-on-inflation-risks-destabilizing-markets

4 US Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates, June 13, 2022 https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202206

The opinions voiced in this material are general, are not intended to provide specific recommendations, and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial. The economic forecasts set forth in this commentary may not develop as predicted.

 

 

     

  

https://www.fivestarprofessional.com/spotlights/90982

Award based on 10 objective criteria associated with providing quality services to clients such as credentials, experience, and assets under management among other factors. Wealth managers do not pay a fee to be considered or placed on the final list of 2012/2022 Five Star Wealth Managers.

Shaun Scott No Comments

Timeless Financial Principles for Methodical Wealth Production


Winter mountaineering is considered by most, including life insurance underwriters, to be an extremely dangerous sport, but the fact is the vast majority of risks on the mountain are calculable, hence, when managed dutifully, the sport can be enjoyed with reasonable safety into a climber’s elder years, and often is. Accumulating wealth is in this respect analogous to winter mountaineering, also fraught with life-threatening, but mostly calculable risks, and when approached with the consistent application of time-tested financial principles, offers the diligent an extraordinarily high probability of success.

While climbing big winter mountains is never easy, it’s rarely complicated. Proper gear and supplies, conditioning, competence, navigation skills, and the poise to think, and not panic, in emergencies, together dependably subdue calculable risks. The principles for wealth production are similar:

  • Build on the foundation of adequate emergency savings (equivalent of 9 months expenses), a specific plan to become debt free (at least by retirement), and the right amount of the right type of life insurance.

  • Establish, and then maximize, a net positive monthly cash flow (net income exceeds gross expenses) by working hard and improving earning capacity with specialized education in your field, and by minimizing expenses with strict budgeting.

  • Allocate investable dollars appropriately, and separately, for each financial goal, in amounts consistent with your priorities. Have a formal and actionable financial plan.

  • Dollar cost average towards all long-term goals.

  • Diversify holdings in each investment account across multiple industries and sectors to mitigate the risk of a large loss scenario.

  • Major in income producing securities and funds.

  • Minor in non-income producing, speculative growth opportunities.

  • Invest in things you understand.

  • Diversify income sources, and again, put capital behind ventures you understand.

  • Enjoy the fruits of your labor and receive refreshment by periodically abstaining from work.

  • Bless others by sharing these principles with them, and by giving to those in need.

 The goal of mountaineering should never be to summit; summiting is a gift, but enjoying the climb and being invigorated and inspired is essential. Enjoy the path these principles will place you on, and share your journey with others. Think about it, Shaun.   

 

“Well done, good and faithful servant. You have been faithful over a little; I will set you over much” ~Matthew 25:23

 

 The opinions voiced in this material are general, are not intended to provide specific recommendations, and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial. The economic forecasts set forth in this commentary may not develop as predicted.

 All investing involves risk including the possible loss of principle. No strategy insures success or protects against loss.

 Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

 Dollar cost averaging involves continuous investment in securities regardless of fluctuation in price.

 

 

 

     

  

https://www.fivestarprofessional.com/spotlights/90982

Award based on 10 objective criteria associated with providing quality services to clients such as credentials, experience, and assets under management among other factors. Wealth managers do not pay a fee to be considered or placed on the final list of 2012/2022 Five Star Wealth Managers.

Shaun Scott No Comments

The 3 Stages of a Bear Market


Slip-and-falls on steep terrain are far and away the number one killer of high mountain climbers, and interestingly, the vast majority of these falls occur on the descent, the part most would describe as the easy half. It’s easy for a climber to die on the way down, for the whole process lends itself to this outcome, and it’s just as easy for investors to financially perish in a bear (down) market, equally supportive of the tragedy. The S&P 500, the most representative index of the U.S. stock market, stands on the precipice of a bear market today. What is a bear market, and what are its identifying characteristics? What mistakes does it exploit, and how can you avoid making one?

A bear market is most generally defined as a 20% decline from the recent high mark. Year to date, the NASDAQ is down 30%, the S&P500 is down 19%, and the Dow Jones is down 15%; the strong indication is we are in the beginning of a major bear market.

As described in Bob Farrell’s 10 Rules of Investing, the three stages of the bear market are as follows:

  • Sharp down

  • Reflexive Rebound

  • Drawn-out fundamental downtrend

The ‘sharp down’ stage has clearly already occurred, and given the S&P 500’s 11% recovery, and the Nasdaq’s 16% recovery, from March 14 to March 29,² maybe the ‘reflexive rebound’ stage has as well. This means several things about the stock market today: investors are still too optimistic about stocks in the short-term, the worst is likely yet to come, and a ‘drawn-out fundamental downtrend’ likely lies ahead.

Whether this is ‘officially’ a bear market remains to be seen, but if it is, the following mistakes will likely prove deadly for investors:

  • Buying aggressively into the peak (late last year, at price levels that may not be seen again for a decade or more).

  • Allocating the overall portfolio too aggressively at a major market peak (again, late last year; returns are most attributable to portfolio allocation, not security selection. Fidelity went public in the last year saying its customers were far too risky for their own well-being).

  • Overconcentration (too much exposure to a small number of holdings; too little real diversification; too much correlation among holdings).

  • Capitulating at the bottom of the bear market (selling indiscriminately at the market bottom to stop the pain).

Easy to comprehend, hard to practice methods of avoiding the aforementioned mistakes include:

  • Buy great businesses whenever they trade at a reasonable price.

  • Know yourself as an investor, be well acquainted with your tolerance for volatility, and appropriate your investment capital in a manner consistent with these two things.

  • Diversify holdings to mitigate a large loss scenario.

  • Understand the investing environment, and the types of investments and industries that thrive in that environment. Investors generally associate deflation with a bear market, yet those who do so this time will be sifted by rapidly rising prices.

  • Stick to your bear market plan, and regarding high quality holdings, slay your emotions to avoid selling them at depressed prices.

  • Build cash, wait for broad capitulation, and pray for wisdom and courage to buy great stocks when others are fearful.    

 Think about it, Shaun.   

“It’s better to buy a great company at a fair price than a fair company at a great price” ~Warren Buffet

1,2 Yahoo Finance, May 20, 2022 https://finance.yahoo.com/

 

The opinions voiced in this material are general, are not intended to provide specific recommendations, and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial. The economic forecasts set forth in this commentary may not develop as predicted.

 All investing involves risk including the possible loss of principle. No strategy insures success or protects against loss.

 Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

 

 

 

     

  

https://www.fivestarprofessional.com/spotlights/90982

Award based on 10 objective criteria associated with providing quality services to clients such as credentials, experience, and assets under management among other factors. Wealth managers do not pay a fee to be considered or placed on the final list of 2012/2022 Five Star Wealth Managers.

Shaun Scott No Comments

~Stagflation~


Significant preparations are made for bad weather scenarios when planning a big mountain expedition, but when the battering begins, it’s instantly clear to the mountaineer the time for planning is over; carrying out well-laid plans is suddenly essential for survival. Stagflation is as dangerous to the financial lives of savers and investors as are high mountain storms to the physical lives of mountaineers. The fact it kills more slowly allows for posture adjustments even after its arrival, unlike most mountain storms, and this is an important distinction, since stagflation is already here.

Stagflation is a portmanteau combining the words stagnation and inflation. It depicts an economy with little or no growth, high unemployment, and high inflation.¹ Last week’s newsprint of a 1.4% contraction in GDP confirms the U.S. economy is weak,² and the suddenly plummeting yield on the 10 Year Treasury bond seems to be confirming it. ‘Official’ Unemployment was recorded at just 3.6% in April,³ painting a rosy, but wildly inaccurate picture of America’s employment market. The far more revealing Labor Participation Rate, presently at a 45 year low (outside the Covid19 lockdown), proves real unemployment is an exponentially higher number. This week April inflation came in at 8.3%, the second consecutive “highest in 40 years” reading.⁴ No mountaineer would ever doubt the arrival of a deadly storm; though stagflation is more difficult to perceive, the above facts confirm it is here.   

Given ‘the Fed’ now has to simultaneously fight a weak economy and high inflation, the following threats to savers and investors are escalated:

  • High probability of a near-term Bear Market in stocks

  • High volatility in the financial markets

  • High probability of a near-term recession

  • Higher probability of additional critical policy errors by ‘the Fed’

  • The systematic vaporization of cash savings by inflation

  • Economic and social disruptions due to ongoing supply problems

Final preparations might include:

  • If retired, have the equivalent of 5+ years of withdrawals in cash

  • If working, think twice before relinquishing earned income

  • Properly diversify your investments to mitigate the risk of a catastrophic loss.

  • Have a long-term mindset towards quality holdings, and ruthlessly beat your emotions into subservience with a stick, then slay them.

  • Tighten your budget, eradicate impulse spending, and payoff your consumer debt.

  • Watch less TV; instead, gain and use valuable skills to replace high expense budget items.

  • Exercise in the sun, create a restful bedroom atmosphere, and graze on healthy foods to minimize future health-related expenses.

  • Be thankful for what you have, and share some of the excess with those who can’t pay you back, then quickly forget all about it.

Think about it, Shaun.   

 

“The prudent sees danger and hides himself, but the simple go on and suffer for it.” ~Proverbs 27:12

 “God loves a cheerful giver.” ~2Corinthians 9:7

 “A good man leaves an inheritance to his children’s children.” ~Proverbs 13:22

1 The Balance, “What is Stagflation?”, by Kimberly Amadeo, October 29, 2021

https://www.thebalance.com/what-is-stagflation-3305964

2 USA Today, “Economy contracts first time since 2020 in first quarter as GDP falls 1.4%”, April 28, 2022

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2022/04/28/us-economy-growth-first-quarter/9562730002/

3 Trading Economics, US Unemployment Rate

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate

4 Yahoo Finance, “Inflation decelerates slightly from 40-year high as CPI rises 8.3% in April”, May 11, 2022

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/inflation-consumer-price-index-cpi-usa-april-2022-123135066.html

The opinions voiced in this material are general, are not intended to provide specific recommendations, and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial. The economic forecasts set forth in this commentary may not develop as predicted.

 All investing involves risk including the possible loss of principle. No strategy insures success or protects against loss.

 Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

 

 

 

 

     

  

https://www.fivestarprofessional.com/spotlights/90982

Award based on 10 objective criteria associated with providing quality services to clients such as credentials, experience, and assets under management among other factors. Wealth managers do not pay a fee to be considered or placed on the final list of 2012/2022 Five Star Wealth Managers.

Shaun Scott No Comments

Negative GDP Print Brings ‘R’ Word Into Focus


Mainstream economists expected a paltry 1% GDP growth for the first quarter, a far cry from the 7% growth realized in the fourth quarter of 2021, yet yesterday’s release showed the U.S. economy contracted 1.4%.¹ The first economic contraction since the Covid19 lockdown considerably raises the probability of a near-term recession, defined as two consecutive quarters of declining GDP. What are the pros and cons of the report? Does it suggest stagflation, a deflationary recession, or a miraculous, ‘Powell-led’, soft landing approaches? What can you do to mitigate the risk of a large loss scenario, should Powell stumble again?

On the plus side of yesterday’s GDP release, consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of economic activity, was solid. Business investment was also strong. These are encouraging signs. But later in the day Amazon issued negative guidance for future sales and a disappointing $3.8billion loss for the quarter.² This is concerning, as it may indicate a slowdown in consumer spending is underway, a harbinger for recession. The report also confirms a slowdown in America’s economy is no longer likely, it’s happening; the question now revolves around how bad things will get.

Fed Chairman, Jerome Powell, focused far too long on restoring jobs following the Covid19 recession, which put him behind the more important task of fighting inflation. He is now in a panic to bring his 40 year high inflation under control, and is about to raise rates .5% in a contracting economy. Financial developments are exposing Powell’s errancy at every turn, making a soft landing improbable. The Fed also has a history of going too far in multi-rate hike periods, particularly when fighting inflation. I suspect it will live up to its reputation. A deep deflationary recession is unlikely near-term because supply constraints, exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war, de-globalization, and the developments in China and Eastern Europe, all potentially lengthy affairs, are driving worldwide price inflation. Can higher than normal inflation co-exist with a weak, or even periodically contracting, economy for months or years? It not only can, it has, and stagflation is the most probable economic scenario for America over at least the next few years.

I have read several reports from reputable sources in the last week suggesting the market has priced in a 25% probability of recession in the next twelve months. Considering a second quarter contraction, even a mild one, puts the economy officially into recession in June, coupled with Powell’s aggressive inflation posture, suggests the stock market may be grossly misjudging short-term risks.

Consider these moves to reduce risk:

  • Build portfolio cash to cover anticipated withdrawals for a few years or more, and as ‘dry powder’ to buy great companies after the market discovers its error.

  • Buy income-producing investments with pricing power.

  • Own a chaos hedge or two.

  • Lower your stock exposure a notch, but don’t over-react and sell all your stocks.

  • Stay diversified.

  • Take a long-term approach and lower your expectations to reduce unnecessary emotional turbulence.

Think about it, Shaun.

“Rule #1 is don’t lose money. Rule #2 is don’t forget Rule #1.” ~Warren Buffet

“He who had received the five talents came forward, bringing five talents more, saying, ‘Master, you delivered to me five talents; here, I have made five talents more’.” ~Matthew 25:20

1 Stansberry Digest, Thursday, April 29, 2022 2 USA Today, “Economy contracts first time since 2020 in first quarter as GDP falls 1.4%”, April 28, 2022 https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2022/04/28/us-economy-growth-first-quarter/9562730002/

The opinions voiced in this material are general, are not intended to provide specific recommendations, and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial. The economic forecasts set forth in this commentary may not develop as predicted.

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

 Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only.  It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities.  Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame and risk tolerance.

     

  

https://www.fivestarprofessional.com/spotlights/90982

Award based on 10 objective criteria associated with providing quality services to clients such as credentials, experience, and assets under management among other factors. Wealth managers do not pay a fee to be considered or placed on the final list of 2012/2022 Five Star Wealth Managers.

Shaun Scott No Comments

The Inseparable Bond between Commodities and Inflation


Two rare and highly disruptive market events appear to simultaneously be in their early stages today. Price inflation is at a fresh 40 year high,¹ actively devouring the cash savings of all consumers everywhere, and at an alarming rate. There have been but four commodity supercycles, or prolonged periods of broadly rising commodity prices due to elevated global demand, in the past 115 years,² yet credentialed investors are suggesting a new commodity supercycle is underway. What is the connection between these two rare market events, what factors suggest they may both be ‘sticky’ trends, and what should you do about it? 

Price inflation is measured in terms of national currencies, so when we’re told inflation is 8.5%, it means the purchase of a basket of goods and services costs 8.5% more US dollars today than it did a year ago. Consumers are willing to exchange real goods, like agriculturally productive land, or productive elements like copper and silver, for monetary currency units for many reasons, including convenience, practicality, or even habit, but one additional reason must be present for that currency to remain relevant: the consumer must believe it will retain its purchasing power while held. Artificially low interest rates mean dollar holdings provide virtually zero present income; coupled with 8.5% annual inflation, holding dollars today equates to owning a rental property that sits perpetually unoccupied while depreciating by half every 8.5 years! Only a negligent investor would delay the immediate liquidation of such a property!  

Commodities are the natural resources our Creator supplied with which humanity may be sustained and constructively engaged. Commodities, as investments, have generally experienced occasional, brief booms, followed by long, drawn out busts, and are, therefore, volatile and risky assets to hold long-term. When a currency is no longer perceived as a store of value, however, exchanging an asset that will reliably lose half its value every 8.5 years, for an asset with intrinsic value that will likely hold its value (or appreciate) short-term, becomes prudent; commodity price trends today reveal the smart money is doing precisely that.

The inseparable bond between inflation and commodity prices is that both can be viewed by savers as a store of value, and when the currency isn’t, commodities will be; that’s when commodity supercycles have historically occurred. 

An ongoing war between major commodity-producing nations which lacks resolution, ongoing global supply constraints, a government addicted to money-printing to pay fixed expenses, and the fact inflation is hard to ‘reign in’ once it invades the psyche of savers and consumers, all suggest inflation will remain high for years, not months.³ These same factors, coupled with a growing distrust in the dollar as a reliable store of value, suggest a supercycle for the ages may be developing in the commodities complex. 

One thing we should do as investors is consider whether commodity investments are more worthy of a small portion of our investable savings than more sorely depreciating dollars.         

Think about it, Shaun.   

It makes no difference to a widow with her savings in a 5 percent passbook account whether she pays 100 percent income tax on her interest income during a period of zero inflation or pays no income tax during years of 5 percent inflation. Either way, she is ‘taxed’ in a manner that leaves her no real income whatsoever. Any money she spends comes right out of capital. She would find outrageous a 100 percent income tax but doesn’t seem to notice that 5 percent inflation is the economic equivalent.” ~Warren Buffet

“He who earns wages does so to put them into a bag with holes. “Thus says the Lord of hosts: Consider your ways.” ~Haggai 1:6-7

1 The New York Times.com, The Morning, “Inflation’s 40 Year High”, April 22, 2022

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/13/briefing/inflation-forty-year-high-gas-prices.html

2 Seeking Alpha, “3 Stocks for the Impending Commodity Supercycle”, April 12, 2022

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4500969-3-stocks-for-the-impending-commodity-supercycle 

3 Stansberry Digest, April 19, 2022

The opinions voiced in this material are general, are not intended to provide specific recommendations, and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial. The economic forecasts set forth in this commentary may not develop as predicted.

The fast price swings in commodities will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings.  Commodities include increased risks, such as political, economic, and currency instability, and may not be suitable for all investors.

     

  

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