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Forecasting mountain weather is an extremely challenging exercise at its easiest. The climber’s life is hinged to a consensus of probable weather scenarios, while on a slab of granite big enough to generate its own weather from invisible systems of energy without warning. To say the climber advances with a back-up plan is an understatement, yet the determination to “rope up” or “hunker down”, remains a critical daily assignment. Investors, like climbers, also operate within a realm of probabilities, and from them must constantly make a forecast of price scenarios, and their financial lives also depend on those judgments. Good climbers understand the indications offered by cloud formations and seek the help of every weather factor before advancing. That example of discipline compels us as investors to consider two more indications that stock indices are reversing:

• The S&P 500 just posted its first positive Trailing 12-Month Return in over a year. A mere 9 times in 73 years, including 2022, has this measure posted a year or longer of stock price declines. Following the 8 prior reversals, in every single case the S&P 500 moved higher over the ensuing year, and by an average percentage nearly twice that of all 12 month periods over the 73 year timespan.¹ A sample base of 73 years is significant, sample occurrences don’t exceed 100%, and twice the average return is noteworthy.  

• Stock indices have been climbing “the wall of worry”. This is phase one of a bull market, especially those following major bear markets, like in 2022. Recent polls and reports reveal stock sentiment among investors is the most bearish in a dozen or more years. A recent Gallup poll showed only 18% of investors believe “the best long-term investment” will be stocks, the lowest reading since 2011.² This indication is very comforting to those accumulating shares of great businesses at this time, given the extraordinarily counter-intuitive nature of the stock market, and the average investor’s failure to understand that dynamic.

We can add these two additional indicators to the stock market “positives” identified last week: probability of a rate cycle peak, decelerating inflation, S&P 500 above its 200 daily moving average (DMA), historic sideline cash, and the history of post, mid-Presidential election years for stocks. Don’t forget rules have exceptions. No indicator is perfect or can be trusted alone. Indicators are like truth, which is supported and affirmed by other truths, which are all agreeable. The scales of probability seem to be suggesting to Prudence that stock market positives now decidedly outweigh negatives, but stay vigilant, and watch for the additional indications streaming in.     

Think about it, Shaun.

“Every prudent man acts with knowledge, but a fool flaunts his folly.” ~Proverbs 13:16

“In the business world, the rearview mirror is always clearer than the windshield.” ~Warren Buffet

1 Stansberry Research, Daily Wealth, “Stocks Turn Positive, With More Gains to Come”, by Brett Eversole, June 8, 2023. 2 Stansberry Research, Daily Wealth, “A Changing of the Guard in Investment Sentiment, by Brett Eversole, June 6, 2023.

The opinions voiced in this material are general, are not intended to provide specific recommendations, and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial.

All investing involves risk including the possible loss of principle. No strategy ensures success or protects against loss. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested in directly. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted and there can be no guarantee that strategies promoted will be successful.

https://www.fivestarprofessional.com/spotlights/90982

Award based on 10 objective criteria associated with providing quality services to clients such as credentials, experience, and assets under management among other factors. Wealth managers do not pay a fee to be considered or placed on the final list of 2012/2022 Five Star Wealth Managers.

During a Denali expedition in 2017, following a 9 day confinement at 14,200 foot camp due to a severe cold storm that saw a handful of climbers with frozen appendages rescued by helicopter, a climbing day arrived! To our dismay and disapproval, the expedition’s head guide decided we would not ascend the head wall to cache supplies on the West Buttress Ridge due to perceived avalanche danger from the 8 inches of snow that accumulated in the night. Retrospective analysis concluded three things: 1) the extreme cold air and constant sunlight over 9 days had consolidated prior accumulations into a sheet of ice, leaving great climbing conditions with little probability of avalanche, 2) the teams which climbed that particular day safely advanced in near-perfect conditions, and 3) that guide decision squandered our team’s only remaining opportunity to summit. Erring on the side of safety and conservativism is sometimes prudent, but success requires the climber to identify opportunities to ascend the mountain, and to do so! Investing is similar to climbing in this regard. Let’s identify the bigger risks and opportunities in the stock market today, in hopes of gaining insight as to whether this is a “hunker down” or “rope up” moment.

Big stock market negatives today include:

• The credit market is tightening, which generally accompanies recession and triggers bankruptcy for heavily indebted businesses. When credit gets too tight, a systemic crisis can erupt. So far the credit market has tightened modestly.

• After improving substantially in Q1, market breadth is declining. Broad advances in stock prices are sustainable, but narrow advances, when indexes rise as the price of most stocks in those indexes fall, are a warning. So far breadth declines seem to be indicating a mere pause in the advancement of stock prices.

• The yield curve warns of a coming economic contraction. The most reliable recession indicator with a near perfect 70 year track record is flashing red. Some notable investors suggest yield curve warnings are no longer reliable due to the Fed’s predominant ownership of outstanding Treasury bonds. So far the yield curve warning of a deep and lengthy contraction has not been substantiated by other economic data.

Big stock market positives today include:

• The Fed has indicated a rate pause, and that rates approach a cycle peak. Less bad conditions often indicate major reversals, especially pertaining to the cost for businesses to access operational credit.

• Inflation continues to decelerate. “The invisible tax” is generally punishing to stock prices when rising, as was the case in 2022, but again, less bad conditions can present enormous opportunity for the nimble, as most investors wait for more certain indications to buy.

• The S&P500 remains above its 200 daily moving average, historically a time to buy stocks.

• A mountain of cash remains on the sidelines, awaiting more certain indications to buy, but many of America’s greatest investors are carefully positioning themselves in front of it. 

• In the past century there has not been a single down year for stocks in a post, mid-presidential election year. This could prove arbitrary, but 100 years is a long time.

In conclusion, while significant risks remain for stocks, the positives look more influential, less uncertain, and more numerous than the negatives. This does not appear to be a time to hide from the storms in your tent! Great businesses with large free-cash flow, and which dominate their respective industry and pay consistent dividends are selling for the lowest valuations in years. Buying great businesses after big sell-offs, like in 2022, is generally a very wise thing to do. If you ever see every stock indicator flashing green, STOP, for the real buying opportunity has definitely passed you by! Stay vigilant. Stay diversified. Focus on quality. Look for screaming buys in leading sectors and industries.

Think about it, Shaun.

“Give a portion to seven, or even to eight, for you know not what disaster may happen on earth.” ~Eccliastes 11:2

The opinions voiced in this material are general, are not intended to provide specific recommendations, and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial.

All investing involves risk including the possible loss of principle. No strategy ensures success or protects against loss. Dividend payments are not guaranteed and may be reduced or eliminated at any time by the company. Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

https://www.fivestarprofessional.com/spotlights/90982

Award based on 10 objective criteria associated with providing quality services to clients such as credentials, experience, and assets under management among other factors. Wealth managers do not pay a fee to be considered or placed on the final list of 2012/2022 Five Star Wealth Managers.

Mountaineering offers many opportunities for regret, especially the young climber’s formative years. The man who chased his pack into a 2,000 foot deep crevasse on Mt. Denali on May 15, 2017, surely regretted not clipping it to his harness. Years ago I regretted not putting my snowshoes on and stubbornly post-holing for two hours in deep snow, as I later shook uncontrollably from hypothermia caused by excessive perspiration. Poor choices produce painful results for retirees, too, which are generally felt when little or nothing can be done to change them. Consider the following retirement regrets, and the means of avoiding them as you plan for your own golden years.

• Regret #1: Not saving enough. A recent study published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) showed 57% of retirees regret not having saved more money.¹

  Solutions: have a retirement plan in place and follow it. Make conservative planning assumptions with rates of return, taxes, and inflation. Capitalize on tax-advantaged retirement accounts, especially those matched by your employer. Work longer and consider a part-time job in the early years of your retirement.

• Regret #2: Inadequately preparing for health care costs. The recent NBER study revealed 40% of retirees regret not more carefully planning for health and long-term care costs.²

  Solutions: assume future health and long-term care costs increase faster than other budget items in your planning. Take great care of yourself with daily sunshine, nutrition, exercise, and sleep. Formulate a plan for your late-life care and share it with your children.

• Regret #3: Retiring too early. Thirty seven percent (37%) of respondents to the NBER study felt they left the workforce too early.³

  Solutions: while working longer is the obvious solution to such a regret, the benefits go well beyond better finances. The intellectual and relational engagement a job or career provides is often critical to a person’s well-being. For the same reason, make sure your inspirations and talents continue in full function to the benefit of others when you do retire, which will be a blessing to you.

• Regret #4: A poor decision with Social Security. The NBER study indicated 23% of retirees wished they had filed for Social Security later.⁴

  Solutions: have a detailed retirement income plan at least 10 years prior to retirement, including Social Security optimization. Work part-time for the first 3-5 years of your retirement so you can delay Social Security payments, which will reduce or extinguish reductions for taking it prior to Full Retirement Age, and enlarge those payments for life.

Think about it, Shaun.

“Where there are no oxen the manger is clean, but abundant crops come by the strength of the ox.” ~Proverbs 14:4

 1,2,3,4 Financial Planning, “4 big retirement regrets – and how to avoid them”, by Nathan Place, January/February, 2023

The opinions voiced in this material are general, are not intended to provide specific recommendations, and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial.

https://www.fivestarprofessional.com/spotlights/90982

Award based on 10 objective criteria associated with providing quality services to clients such as credentials, experience, and assets under management among other factors. Wealth managers do not pay a fee to be considered or placed on the final list of 2012/2022 Five Star Wealth Managers.

Methodical wealth building (MWB) may be defined as the accumulation of wealth, or net worth, at a pace faster than inflation. It is a Biblical concept, a practical endeavor, and a noble enterprise, as the effort of one invariably blesses the lives of many. MWB prioritizes not the accumulation of money, but good stewardship, and often chooses a course with slower accumulations due to principle. The only reliable means of MWB is the consistent application of financial principles over time, as a manner of living; the tortoise beat the hare because it stuck to the plan, and the hare lost because it didn’t! While persistent high inflation makes MWB elusive, the means, as a rule, prevail, giving every partaker a high probability of success.

The practices of methodical wealth builders are simple, but often defy both the natural appetite and our profligate culture, so don’t confuse ‘simple’ for ‘easy’:

• Methodical wealth builders work hard and live simple, frugal lives. They spend less than take home pay each month, saving and investing the difference. While a miser forsakes all for more gain, wealth builders enjoy the fruits of their labor, but with discretion. A fancy automobile is viewed not as a status symbol, but as an imprudent disposition of capital. The dispensation of every resource is weighed on a scale of prudence and scarcity, as with accountability.

  “Aspire to live quietly, and to mind your own affairs, and to work with your own hands, so that you may be dependent on no one.”  ~1Thessalonians 4:11-12  

• Methodical wealth builders manage debt with scrutiny. They understand the danger of debt in certain circumstances, that leveraged investments do not match unleveraged investments in profitability, and that debt only makes financial sense when the borrowed money is invested productively (net of interest paid, after tax return exceeds inflation). They always carry a miniscule debt/equity ratio, and never fully retire with any debt at all. “The borrower is the slave of the lender.”  ~Proverbs 22:7

• Methodical wealth builders dispense capital carefully and productively. They understand prices are negotiable, and consider the value of a thing before tendering an offer. They know a company’s reported revenues and earnings can deceive investors, and that dividends and free cash flow can’t. They invest primarily in boring businesses which dominate their respective industry, have a moat of protection against competition, earn steady cash flows, and pay (and increase) dividends systematically. They speculate sparingly with minimal capital, and keep individual position sizes small. They are judicious in the deployment of their hard-earned capital. ”Precious treasure and oil are in a wise man’s dwelling, but a foolish man devours it.”  ~Proverbs 21:20  

• Methodical wealth builders are generous, and give freely to those in need, understanding this is the one instance where returns are non-financial. They give not to enable, but to empower and bless, and that “you give a child enough to do something, but not enough to do nothing”. They seek to forget every gift immediately. “God loves a cheerful giver.”  ~2Corinthians 9:7         

May these principles and practices be a blessing to you and others, Shaun.

The opinions voiced in this material are general, are not intended to provide specific recommendations, and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial.

All investing involves risk including the possible loss of principle. No strategy ensures success or protects against loss. Dividend payments are not guaranteed and may be reduced or eliminated at any time by the company.

https://www.fivestarprofessional.com/spotlights/90982

Award based on 10 objective criteria associated with providing quality services to clients such as credentials, experience, and assets under management among other factors. Wealth managers do not pay a fee to be considered or placed on the final list of 2012/2022 Five Star Wealth Managers.

Mountain climbing, like investing, inherently involves risk. Packing a survival blanket to withstand hypothermia, and a second pair of goggles to prevent the blindness of frozen eyelids, and establishing multiple camps on big mountain adventures, to which you may flee and recover from injury, all offer the dividend of living to climb another day. The financial benefits associative to income investing, or owning investments which pay a present stream of income (‘Income’), as opposed to none, are commensurate with such critical climbing principles, and include:

• ‘Income’ provides a margin of risk reduction with your investment. ‘Income’ paid today replaces a pure reliance on growth, which is often speculative and risky.

• ‘Income’ accelerates the compounding of investment returns (over reinvesting capital gains alone) and increases share ownership.

• It is our opinion ‘income’ fights inflation more effectively than growth because inflation places a premium on ‘income’, and discounts its absence.

• ‘Income’ can give you a raise without depleting the principle of your investment, even when growth is elusive.

• A portfolio containing ‘income’ investments likely equates to less overall risk and higher average portfolio quality, and it is our opinion only established, competitive companies can meet the promise of a consistent dividend through periods of recession and bear markets.

• ‘Income’ investments simplify the investment process and potentially decrease portfolio expenses because the average hold time far exceeds that of non-‘income’ investments.

Doc Eifrig, a successful and well-known ‘income’-focused investor at Stansberry Research, suggests we are in a ripe period for ‘income’ investing today, following the Fed’s aggressive rate hike campaign in 2022, and lays out three simple principles for successful ‘income’ investing:

• Buying dividend stocks alone isn’t enough. To consistently maximize both income and returns, investors must a) utilize bonds, REIT’s, MLP’s, ETF’s, annuities, and Treasury bonds, b) understand the environment in which each ‘income’ investment thrives, and c) act at the appropriate time. It won’t help a climber who responds to frozen hands by putting their helmet on!

• Always be a value investor when purchasing ‘income’ investments. Have strict ‘buy’ parameters, and stick to them like a tick on a dog. Never overpay for an ‘income’ investment. Never chase prices.

• Never accept less interest on cash savings than the market will safely give you, even on your emergency fund, especially in a high inflation environment.¹

An elite winter climbing day above tree-line, and ‘income’ investing in today’s pristine rate environment both come with three charges; the former: pack carefully, fuel up, and enjoy the adventure!; the latter: recognize the benefits, apply the means, and enjoy the financial blessing.

Think about it, Shaun.

“Our favorite holding period is forever”. ~Warren Buffet

“Price is what you pay. Value is what you get”. ~Warren Buffet

“Never depend on a single income. Make an investment to create a second source”. ~Warren Buffet

“Wealth gained hastily will dwindle, but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.”  ~Proverbs 13:11

1 Stansberry Research, Daily Wealth, “We’re in a Rare Age for Income Investors”, by Dr. David Eifrig, April 12, 2023

The opinions voiced in this material are general, are not intended to provide specific recommendations, and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial.

All investing involves risk including the possible loss of principle. No strategy ensures success or protects against loss. Dividend payments are not guaranteed and may be reduced or eliminated at any time by the company.

https://www.fivestarprofessional.com/spotlights/90982

Award based on 10 objective criteria associated with providing quality services to clients such as credentials, experience, and assets under management among other factors. Wealth managers do not pay a fee to be considered or placed on the final list of 2012/2022 Five Star Wealth Managers.

It has been the practice of our two-man winter climbing team for 15 years to hire guides on glaciated adventures, and to go-it-alone on snow. We’ve paid guide teams to endanger us, and we’ve paid guide teams to save our lives. On one particular 5 day climb in 2011, the guiding policies were so irrational, we may have saved their lives! They were good people, and strong young men, practicing unsound principles. The investment tenets driving your investment decisions, or those of your wealth manager, are equally critical to your financial survival and success! Here are two fundamental principles to investing that are upheld by many of the most experienced investors in America:

• Negative principle; something to avoid: Never allow your geopolitical or macro-economic views to impact investment decisions. Investors who do so consistently produce among the worst returns in the marketplace. Allow your perceptions of the broad picture to impact financial planning decisions, but never decisions aimed at growing capital. There are no exceptions to this rule.

• Example: many friends and clients have recently expressed intense concern about the likelihood the U.S. dollar loses its world-reserve currency status, to the effect it should be impacting investment decisions. Not so! As Ian Bremmer keenly noted, “you can’t replace something with nothing”, and there is no viable alternative on the horizon today.¹ Investments made on the faulty premise the inevitable death of the global dollar must occur in the next few years  will eventually turn woefully sour, even as disciplined investors continue to consistently make wise decisions and profit!

• Positive principle: something to practice: Always be a buyer of a highly profitable business at a reasonable price. Warren Buffet, to express this point, suggests investors think of themselves as business owners, not stock pickers. Doc Eifrig, the top performing investor at Stansberry Research during his long tenure, often recommends the purchase of companies that a) show several years of consistent revenue growth, b) have return on assets (ROA) of 10% or more, c) have 10 consecutive years of dividend growth, d) have a net debt-to-earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (“EBITDA”) ratio of less than 4, and e) have a price to earnings ratio (P/E) under 25.² What matters is that you have parameters that are tested and reliable, and that you follow them.

• Example: retail investors are notoriously the worst investors on earth. They never buy into the stock market until very late in a raging bull market, and are the credited catalyst which ‘pushes’ stock prices to their peak and warns elite investors to protect their long-standing, massive gains. Later they methodically capitulate near the bottom of the following bear market, and resolve never to own stocks again. They are a group of highly emotional investors without a plan, trying to compete in a highly counter-intuitive marketplace designed to ultimately inflict the maximum amount of pain on the maximum number of investors. Track the retail investor, but make this powerful investing principle your guide.

May these two sound principles be a blessing to your investing efforts! Think about it, Shaun.

“It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price, than a fair company at a wonderful price.” ~Warren Buffet

“Where there is no guidance, a people falls, but in an abundance of counselors there is safety.” ~Proverbs 11:14 ESV

1 Mauldin Economics, Over My Shoulder, “Ian Bremmer: The Dollar is Dead, Long Live the Dollar”, April 10, 2023

2 Doc Eifrig’s Health & Wealth Review, “Five Traits of Any Good Investment”, April 8, 2023

The opinions voiced in this material are general, are not intended to provide specific recommendations, and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial.

All investing involves risk including the possible loss of principle. No strategy ensures success or protects against loss. Dividend payments are not guaranteed and may be reduced or eliminated at any time by the company.

https://www.fivestarprofessional.com/spotlights/90982

Award based on 10 objective criteria associated with providing quality services to clients such as credentials, experience, and assets under management among other factors. Wealth managers do not pay a fee to be considered or placed on the final list of 2012/2022 Five Star Wealth Managers.

Engaging an activity without an understanding of the associative principles and rules is generally a consequential endeavor. This winter alone a good number of outdoor enthusiasts ventured into the White Mountains of New Hampshire absent both knowledge and attire, and quickly met their Maker. Ed Viesturs, the greatest mountaineer America ever produced, never put his crampons on before reading, “Freedom of the Hills”, a 575 page manual on the sport, also known as “The Bible of Mountaineering”, two times word for word! His success is not a mystery, but the result of his commitment to education. Finance needlessly claims far more financial lives than all the mountains on earth. Burn the following rules into your thinking, allow them to incinerate your financial fallacies, practice them devotedly, and enjoy the blessings they will bring.

Establish a net positive cash flow (‘NPCF’: net income exceeds gross expenses) with hard work, career specialization, and strict budgeting.

• Most consumers make excuses for their overspending, but this rule requires unfunded, voluntary expenses to be eradicated, including, but not limited to pets, cell phones, cable TV, eating out, needless driving, vacationing, hobbying, and even excess giving.

• Most Americans accumulate debt faster than equity for failing to obey this simple rule. Don’t be one of them! Do no further financial planning until accomplishing a ‘NPCF’ in your household, which would equate to fertilizing a grub-infested lawn.

Appropriate your monthly excess (NPCF) productively.

• Establish an ample emergency fund equal to at least six months household expenses, accelerate debt repayment dutifully, and buy enough term life insurance to protect your loved-ones.

• Understand real wealth building requires investment returns equal to, or greater than inflation, which necessitates the ownership of great businesses. Diversify holdings, dollar cost average your purchases, own index funds, minimize expenses, and avoid taxes.

Become a judicious risk assessor of your investment portfolio.

• A 1,500 lb. brown bear won’t engage a 45 lb. wolverine because it understands injury results in death. Most great investors insist the avoidance of catastrophic loss is the single most important aspect of investing. Embrace this truth.

• Keep individual positions to 5% or less of the whole. Establish stop-loss orders on all non-forever stock holdings at the time of purchase, and follow them militantly. Buy primarily boring businesses which earn consistent profits and pay dividends. Follow purchase parameters to avoid overpayment.¹

These rules are few and simple, but sufficiently powerful to transform wealth consumers into methodical wealth producers. Think about it, Shaun.

“Rule number one is never lose money. Rule number two is never forget rule number one.”  ~Warren Buffet

“Give a portion to seven, or even to eight, for you know not what disaster may happen on earth.”  ~Ecclesiastes 11:2

“Wealth gained hastily will dwindle, but whoever gathers little by little will increase it.”  ~Proverbs 13:11

1 Stansberry Research, “The Stansberry Digest”, April 10, 2023

The opinions voiced in this material are general, are not intended to provide specific recommendations, and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial.

All investing involves risk including the possible loss of principle. No strategy ensures success or protects against loss. Dividend payments are not guaranteed and may be reduced or eliminated at any time by the company.

Dollar cost averaging involves continuous investment in securities regardless of fluctuation in price levels of such securities. Investors should consider their ability to continue purchasing through fluctuating price levels. Such a plan does not insure a profit and does not protect against loss in declining markets. 

Asset allocation does not ensure a profit or protect against loss. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.

https://www.fivestarprofessional.com/spotlights/90982

Award based on 10 objective criteria associated with providing quality services to clients such as credentials, experience, and assets under management among other factors. Wealth managers do not pay a fee to be considered or placed on the final list of 2012/2022 Five Star Wealth Managers.

I think the single biggest factor governing a winter mountain expedition is the weather, and the biggest weather factor is the wind. A 105 MPH gust will throw a 200 pound climber like a leaf, forcing the humiliating crawl. An 80 MPH wind will cause such exertion staying vertical that exacerbated breathing can freeze the goggles, a potential deathblow. The wind is always a primary concern for mountaineers, not only direction and velocity now, but where these forces may be in an hour, and every attempt to move on the mountain evaluates them. If there is a single comparable governing factor in finance to the mountain wind, it is interest rates. Rates represent the cost of capital, and capital is the lifeblood of every financial entity; your family is a financial entity. Rate assumptions factor into computing the time value of money, so every decision pertaining to any use of capital is impacted by interest rates, at all levels. In a highly indebted society, the impact rates have on finance is even more dynamic. So where are interest rates heading, and what are the primary implications?

Following one of the most aggressive inflation-fighting, rate-hike  campaigns in the Fed’s 110 year history in 2022 and early 2023, the recent failure of Silicon Valley Bank caused a stampede of capital into the largest perceived safe-haven asset on earth, U.S. Treasury Bonds. Frenzied buying caused the rate on the closely watched 2 Year T-Bond, which peaked at 5.07% on March 8, 2023, to crash to below 4% in just three trading days, one of the biggest three day drops on record.¹ I liken the drop, which has occurred only ten times in fifty years, to a sudden calm in the midst of sustained 90 MPH mountain winds! All ten of these occurrences took place in the 1980’s, and consistently indicated a reversal in the direction of rates. Any remaining contagion from recent bank failures likely means additional concentrated demand for T-Bonds, which would further reduce rates. Economic weakness associated with the oncoming recession would apply further downward pressure. These factors, combined with the fact today’s 5% Fed Funds Rate is the highest in 15 years, suggest rates may be reversing and can drop significantly from here.²

We’ll be wise to consider the implications of falling rates:

• The U.S. dollar will likely weaken against foreign currencies, and especially against real assets.

• Recent declines in price inflation may moderate, and inflation may resurge.

• Existing bond values may rise as new bonds offer lower yields, especially those with longer maturities.

• Investors who recently bought 2-3 year T-Bonds look smarter than those who bought 3-12 month T-Bills.

• Gold, which pays no interest, may look more attractive as compared with treasury bonds, and could get an additional “push” from resurging inflation.

• Stocks may come under pressure initially as the capital ‘flight to safety’ plays out, but ultimately lower rates tend to push stock prices higher.

• The Fed is trapped between fighting inflation, which is far higher than its desired 2%, by raising interest rates, and fighting crises instigated by those rate hikes. There is no indication the Fed will escape this trap anytime soon.     

• Given the shortage of homes in America, residential real estate may find a footing and recover with a reduction in interest rates. 

Think about it, Shaun.

“A slack hand causes poverty, but the hand of the diligent makes rich.”~ Proverbs 10:4 ESV

1,2  Daily Wealth, “Market Turmoil Could Signal a Top in Interest Rates”, by Brett Eversole, March 28, 2023

The opinions voiced in this material are general, are not intended to provide specific recommendations, and do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial.  

All investing involves risk including the possible loss of principle. No strategy ensures success or protects against loss. Dividend payments are not guaranteed and may be reduced or eliminated at any time by the company.

Government bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the US government as to the timely payment of principal and interest and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and fixed principal value.

Any economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop as predicted. 

https://www.fivestarprofessional.com/spotlights/90982

Award based on 10 objective criteria associated with providing quality services to clients such as credentials, experience, and assets under management among other factors. Wealth managers do not pay a fee to be considered or placed on the final list of 2012/2022 Five Star Wealth Managers.

Fear is one of the most powerful human emotions, and for this reason, negativity sells. Successful investing, however, involves a consistent, phlegmatic practice of sound principles over time, and in a broad range of investing environments. While ratings-driven news stories can show us where the emotionally-charged herd is stampeding at the moment, in order to grasp the indications that can help us make wise investing decisions for the mid and long-terms, we need to get past (or avoid) the entertainment, and thoughtfully consider primary forces. Here are a few factors I believe are worthy of our consideration.

Systemically important banks are far better capitalized today than in the 2008 financial crisis. Fed-mandated regulations applicable to banks with consolidated assets exceeding $50billion, including stress tests, resolution planning, stricter liquidity and capital requirements, and enhanced oversight,¹ suggests a crisis similar to The Great Recession is unlikely at this time. While mass fear in a highly indebted society (practicing fractional reserve banking) is alone capable of introducing a systemic crisis, both the Treasury Department and the Fed proved during the 2020 Covid19 lockdown they will go to any length necessary to stabilize the economy and financial markets in a time of crisis, and unless and until the U.S. dollar loses global confidence, they have the power to succeed. That said, the move by federal regulators this week to backstop all Silicon Valley Bank deposits² virtually guarantees a more significant banking crisis will emerge down the road, as it no longer makes sense for banks to consider risk when allocating depositor funds.

While a recession appears imminent (or already here), the U.S. economy is not unraveling in a disorderly manner. Unemployment remains low at 3.6%,³ job openings are robust, and layoffs outside the tech sector are unmentionable. Nothing systemically significant is broken in the U.S. economy at this time, but do not forget inflation remains three times the 2% desired by the Fed!

A Fed policy shift is probably much closer than most investors understand in their present fearful state. For many months the Fed has been aggressively raising interest rates to combat 40 year high inflation, and Jerome Powell has been clear that only a drop in inflation near the desired 2% range, or a crisis, will cause a change in the direction of rates. The Fed’s goal was to raise rates until something big broke, and big things are starting to break.  

These are the relevant factors, and I believe they suggest the following:

• The Fed will likely pivot to easy money policies near term.

• The U.S. dollar will likely weaken against foreign currencies, and gold and other chaos hedges will likely outperform, in this process.

• Investors should favor established, capital-efficient businesses, and build a watch list for the Fed pivot.

• High inflation continues to place a premium on present streams of income, and discount future streams of income.

• The credit market is tightening, which may induce further casualties before regulators take policy action. Look for great businesses to get “thrown out with the bathwater”, and buy them!

• Cash is required to capitalize on these dynamic opportunities.

Think about it, Shaun.

“Only when the tide goes out do you find out who has been swimming naked” ~Warren Buffet

“Give a portion to seven, or even to eight, for you know not what disaster may happen on earth.” ~Ecclesiastes 11:2

1 McKinsey & Company, “A decade after the global financial crisis: What has (and hasn’t) changed?”, August 29, 2018 https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/financial-services/our-insights/a-decade-after-the-global-financial-crisis-what-has-and-hasnt-changed

2 NBC News, “US moves to protect all deposits at Silicon Valley Bank in a bid to stem a wider fallout”, March 12, 2023 https://www.nbcnews.com/business/business-news/treasury-says-will-back-silicon-valley-bank-deposits-rcna74570

3 U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, March 10, 2023 https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

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